As we enter the Year of the Dragon, U.S. bilateral relations with key states in Northeast Asia generally appear on track. Ties with America's two key allies, Japan and Korea, remain steady, as the Trilateral Cooperation and Oversight Group process has helped to keep all three in sync when dealing with their most contentious common concern, North Korea. Meanwhile, Pyongyang is on an apparent charm offensive (at least by North Korean standards). Previously strained ties with China also appear to be gradually mending.
But, as American humorist Mark Twain once observed, "even if you are on the right track, you'll get run over if you just stand there." This is no time for complacency or benign neglect, all-too-common features of U.S. policy toward Asia, especially during a U.S. election year.
China: U.S.-China relations remain the prime candidate for a future train wreck. True, the United States and China finally agreed to the terms of China's accession into the World Trade Organization, and Lt. Gen. Xiong Guangkai's Washington visit signals a welcome resumption of military-to-military dialogue. However, while Washington is eager to move beyond Kosovo-induced frictions, Beijing is still calling for a "satisfactory account" of the Belgrade bombing incident and punishment of the "perpetrators."