With just days to go, the U.S. midterm elections of Nov. 8 are raising many questions in Japan.

Will the elections be conducted in a free and fair manner and will the results be accepted by both winners and losers? Will Democrats retain their majority in the House and the Senate or will Republicans take control? What effect will the outcome have on the Biden Administration, in particular its foreign policy? What implications will the election results have for the 2024 U.S. presidential election?

Until recently, Japanese observers of American politics debated whether a Republican or a Democratic administration in Washington would be better for Japan. As recently as April 2020, a Japanese government official wrote a famous article in The American Interest arguing that Japan prefers Donald Trump to Joe Biden as president because “We just don’t want to see the United States go back to engagement (with China), which will undoubtedly come at our ... expense.”

However, seeing so many Republicans challenge the results of the 2020 presidential election, many Japanese are now questioning whether America — which has served as Japan’s leading model of democracy since the end of World War Two — can continue to be relied on as the model for the world. The Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection has further eroded the image of America as the model of a vibrant democracy that can set the example for the world to emulate.

So for many Japanese, the midterm elections will serve as an indicator of the health of American democracy.

Japanese observers are well aware that the party out of power usually gains Congressional seats in U.S. midterm elections. And given President Biden’s low approval ratings (53.2% disapproval vs. 42.2% approval in the latest FiveThirtyEight poll) and voter dissatisfaction over inflation, high gasoline prices and the sluggish economy, most Japanese expect that Republicans will gain the majority in the House and perhaps in the Senate, as well.

The tide seemed to be turning in favor of Democrats in the June-August time frame, when several events occurred: a decline in inflation and gasoline prices; the passage of long-pending legislation, including on gun control, inflation reduction, semiconductor production and benefits to veterans; an initiative to forgive student loans; and the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, the case that for 49 years had guaranteed the legality of abortion as a federal matter. However, by October, the voters’ top priority returned to the economy, where Democrats have been on the defensive.

If one or both houses of Congress turns majority Republican, the Biden Administration will be hamstrung. Passing legislation will become more difficult; getting nominees confirmed by the Senate will face more hurdles; Republicans will try to undo policy achievements of the past two years, including on taxes, regulations, gun control, climate change and more; and Republicans are likely to use their subpoena power to launch investigations into issues in which they believe Democrats are vulnerable (e.g., Hunter Biden).

And depending on how many seats they gain in the Congress, Republicans may even start impeachment proceedings against President Biden on the argument that he did not actually win the election of November 2020. Japan naturally wants to know how the election results may affect U.S.-Japan relations on a wide range of issues, including China, Russia, North Korea and climate change.

The midterms will undoubtedly shape the environment for the 2024 presidential election. If Democrats do well, it would enhance the likelihood of President Biden running for reelection, whereas a defeat in both houses would reduce this probability. If Republican candidates supported by former President Trump win, it will strengthen his influence in the Republican Party and enhance his chances of running in 2024 and ultimately emerging as the nominee of his party.

The caveat here is that there are at least five uncertainties about Trump’s future: the lawsuits against him in New York State; the lawsuits against him in Georgia; the findings of the Jan. 6 Committee; the FBI seizure of classified documents from his home in Mar-a-Lago; and an investigation apparently being conducted by the Department of Justice. The outcome of these disputes could significantly affect whether Trump will be able to run for the presidency in 2024 even if he wants to.

If Trump does run, it will reduce the number of candidates who run in the Republican primaries. But former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney are all likely to run in either case.

If Biden decides to run, he is likely to face few challengers in his party. But if he decides not to run, some of the 28 candidates who entered the race in 2020 are likely to run as well as several who didn’t such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker. The number of candidates would be fewer if Vice President Kamala Harris were seen as a candidate who could reliably lead Democrats to victory in November 2024, but that is not the case at this point.

Adding to the uncertainty is the unreliability of public opinion polling. Especially since the election of 2016, pollsters have faced significant challenges in their ability to accurately predict voting behavior. This is because some voters (especially Trump supporters) refuse to respond to pollsters or, if they do, intentionally provide false answers. In addition, Trump’s populism has made it difficult for pollsters to accurately predict voter turnout, which is key to their ability to predict election outcomes.

All of the above means that Japan needs to be nimble, flexible and adaptable to deal with any of the four possible outcomes of the midterm elections (in descending order of probability): (1) Republicans win both houses of Congress, (2) Republicans win the House but Democrats keep the Senate, (3) Democrats keep the House but Republicans win the Senate, and (4) Democrats keep both houses.

Unlike the 1990s, when Americans complained that Japan had a succession of seven prime ministers during the eight years of President Bill Clinton, now it’s Japan that is the most politically stable among the Group of Seven countries, and it’s America’s turn to lack stability, continuity and predictability.

Glen S. Fukushima is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and served as deputy assistant United States trade representative for Japan and China at the Office of the United States Trade Representative and as president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan.