Please pause a moment for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had little to celebrate on his 68th birthday (Oct. 7). He is reported to be hunkered down in his dacha outside Moscow, protected by a rigorous anti-infection protocol — visitors must pass through a “disinfection tunnel,” among other measures — as he struggles to deal with a series of crises on Russia’s periphery, mounting international anger over the alleged poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and rising discontent at home. Putin’s domestic position is not in danger but if he were the master strategist many believe him to be, this could be an opportunity to reset relations with the West. Don’t count on it.
This was supposed to be a triumphant summer for Putin. In July, an overwhelming majority approved revisions to the Russian constitution that would allow him to seek two more terms as president and, if re-elected, stay in power until 2036. They also made former presidents immune from prosecution. Russia declared victory in the race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine, a PR win that some equated with the Russian team’s victory over Spain in the 2018 soccer World Cup. And, despite fears of embarrassment, Putin’s United Russia party and its allies won 20 gubernatorial races in last month’s regional elections.
Putin is taking great pleasure in the convulsions that have seized the U.S. body politic, divisions that are intensifying as the November presidential vote approaches and which some U.S. government reports attribute to his direct orders. The discrediting of democracy and the weakening of the United States serve his strategic interests.