Turkey occupies a critical geographical position in the fight against the Islamic State extremist group. Its proximity to Syria means that its airfields are the most convenient to launch airstrikes against the militants. Just as important, however, is the long border with Syria and Iraq: Many if not most of the individuals seeking to join Islamic State radicals cross the border to enter the battlefield.
Until last week, Turkey had refused to allow the use of its airfields for attacks in Syria, seeking instead the end of the Bashar Assad government in Damascus. Using the logic of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," the Islamic State group has been an ally in that struggle.
The Ankara government has also been cautious because the chief obstacle to Islamic State's advance has been Kurdish forces in Iraq and Turkey fears that the stronger those forces grow, the greater the risk that they will join with Kurds in Turkey to challenge Ankara's authority and carve out a homeland.
That calculus apparently changed last week, when Islamic State militants attacked a Turkish border outpost, killing one soldier and wounding two others. The militants were also blamed for a suicide bombing in a southern border town that killed 32 people and wounded more than 100 others. That violence triggered protests throughout the country against the government's supposed tolerance of the extremist group.
In response, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan launched a series of operations that "will continue decisively in the future." Moreover, the government also confirmed that it would allow the United States expanded use of Incirlik air base, which should make it easier to wage war from the sky.
Erdogan is making the best of a bad situation. He cannot afford to have the unrest spread, nor can he let the Kurdish unhappiness increase. His NATO allies have been angry at his reluctance to allow them use of Incirlik as well as the seeming ease with which people, arms and other supplies cross the border. The defeat Erdogan suffered in the elections held earlier this year undermines his ability to stave off allied demands.
Ankara's calculations have not been simplified. Pressure to help NATO will continue but Erdogan and his government will always consider the Kurds a bigger threat than the Islamic State radicals. That simple fact will drive Turkey's strategic decision making for some time to come.
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