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Anyone who witnessed how Russia’s “Snow Revolution” of 2011 and 2012 fizzled can confidently predict the failure of the Taksim riots in Turkey.

In recent years, mass protests in authoritarian states have succeeded only where the rioters had little or nothing to lose, and so were prepared to unleash serious violence. That wasn’t the case in Moscow, and it isn’t the case in Istanbul, where the majority of the protesters are relatively prosperous members of the middle class.

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