The collision between a Chinese Air Force fighter and a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace over the South China Sea represents an unfortunate, unplanned, but nonetheless important test of the maturity of the Sino-U.S. relationship and of the Chinese leadership. Thus far, Beijing appears to be flunking the test.
hile more information will further explain what actually happened, the most credible explanation to date is that the collision -- which clearly occurred in international airspace while the U.S. plane was on a routine, unarmed mission -- was most likely caused by overzealousness on the part of the Chinese interceptor pilot. Chinese jets routinely conduct intercept training against these convenient American "targets" but have reportedly been more aggressive, if not reckless, in recent months. The rules of the road call for the faster, more maneuverable Chinese F-8 jet to yield to the slower, less maneuverable, larger E-P3E propeller-driven 737-size aircraft. This, plus the U.S. tendency to admit when it is at fault in an accident -- witness Washington's response to the accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in May 1999 and the tragic collision between a U.S. submarine and a Japanese fisherman training ship -- would seem to give the benefit of the doubt to the U.S., pending more details.
The Chinese immediate handling of the incident -- to publicly blame the U.S. even before the facts were known and to protest the U.S. spy plane's "violation" of Chinese airspace (by flying to Hainan Island and landing without diplomatic pre-clearance, despite the obvious emergency nature of the "mayday" divert) -- was reminiscent of Beijing's handling of the aftermath of the Belgrade bombing, which China's leadership immediately branded as a deliberate act. It seems that Beijing's automatic reaction to any mishap is to immediately incite rather than mollify anti-American sentiment. This seems counterproductive to Beijing's stated desire to develop improved relations with Washington. Having portrayed the incident in a way that generated (thus far peaceful) protests already occurring in Chinese streets, Beijing can now point to this public reaction to justify a more hardline approach toward the U.S. in dealing with the aftermath of the incident.