Russia and the International Monetary Fund this week agreed on a framework that will permit the organization to resume lending to the beleaguered country. Only the outlines of the deal have emerged; final details are to be worked out next week. But the particulars of the package are less important than the fact that the two sides reached an agreement. A deal is a vote of confidence in Russia's ability to manage the economy and opens the door to negotiations with other debtors.
In truth, the agreement is a fudge. The IMF funds will be made available to pay off previous loans from the organization. The amount that has reportedly been agreed to is slightly more than the sum Russia owes the IMF. It is unlikely that the money will ever actually leave Washington. That is only prudent, given the speed with which earlier loans fled the country to line the pockets of well-connected businesspeople. But it is also a measure of the skepticism surrounding the Moscow government's promises to get its fiscal house in order.
The few details that have been publicized do not give reason for hope. Reportedly, the fund agreed that Russia's budget surplus would only reach 2 percent of GDP, rather than the 3.5 percent that it had demanded. Even the lower figure seems beyond reach given the government's anemic ability to collect tax revenues. But a low number could make future noncompliance easier to ignore.