The six nations that make up the Contact Group on Kosovo have demanded that the parties to the conflict attend a peace conference in Rambouillet, France this weekend. They have backed up that summons with the threat of NATO military intervention in the troubled province if the combatants fail to stop the fighting. In so doing, the Contact Group has raised the stakes. The call for a Dayton-style peace conference puts the credibility of the international community on the line. It is a gamble, but one that is likely to pay off.
The outlines of the deal that the Contact Group has proposed have emerged. All fighting would stop and all hostages would be released. The Serb police and military presence in the region would be reduced to minimal levels. Kosovo would receive substantial autonomy for a period of three years, a president and separate representation in the Yugoslav Federation. International peacekeepers, reportedly including U.S. forces, would be deployed to police the agreement. According to British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook, "only 20 percent" of the terms are negotiable.
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic will complain about dealing with "terrorists" and stall until the last possible moment, but ultimately he has every reason to go to Rambouillet. For all his tough talk, Mr. Milosevic can live with this deal. He cannot end the fighting. He can wreak havoc and his forces can commit unspeakable atrocities, but the Kosovo guerrillas will not be beaten by conventional arms. The Contact Group proposal will keep Kosovo within the Yugoslav Federation. More importantly, it will allow him to save face: Mr. Milosevic can claim that the West forced his hand and that he has maintained the integrity of the federation. And, as in the Dayton negotiations, the Yugoslav president will have re-established himself as the Balkan deal maker, indispensable to any real settlement in the region.