The race for the Liberal Democratic Party presidency began Monday, with five candidates vying to lead a ruling party reeling from election defeats over the past year and a minority government that will be forced to compromise with the opposition in order to ensure a parliamentary majority.
The five are: Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64, the chief Cabinet secretary; Takayuki Kobayashi, 50, a former economic security minister; Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, the agriculture minister; Toshimitsu Motegi, 69, former LDP secretary-general; and Sanae Takaichi, 64, a former economic security minister.
The candidates are a mixture of relatively younger figures such as Kobayashi and Koizumi, who are emphasizing the need for a generational change, and political veterans Motegi, Hayashi and Takaichi, who are touting their experience.
Whoever wins faces the task of rebuilding public trust in the 70-year-old LDP at a time of low public approval ratings and winning over more voters as smaller opposition parties like the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito are resonating with urban voters in their 30s, 40s and 50s.
“The LDP now faces its gravest crisis since its founding. We suffered defeat in last October's House of Representatives election, followed by losses in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election (in June and) the (July) Upper House election,” Motegi said Monday afternoon at a kickoff event with all five candidates.
“If you elect me as prime minister and (LDP) president, I will appoint these young members and women and reduce the average age of Cabinet ministers by 10 years, and women will be appointed to 30% of Cabinet positions,” he added.
Hayashi agreed with Motegi that the situation in the LDP and, more broadly, the nation did not appear bright. However, he said it was always darkest before the dawn, and that under his leadership, he would seek to increase real wages by 1% annually to achieve growth and invest in the country’s school systems.
“Strengthening public education is vital, and I’ll promote an educational system that teaches elementary school children the skills they will need when they enter society,” Hayashi said.
Takaichi said she would emphasize two issues if elected.
“The first is amending the Imperial House Law to ensure the imperial line continues through the male line. The second is clarifying the existence of the Self-Defense Forces within the Constitution," she said. "As LDP president, I am prepared to pour all my passion into driving these debates forward."
If Motegi, Hayashi and Takaichi were the veteran voices of experience, Kobayashi and Koizumi emphasized the advantages of youth.
“I acknowledge the criticism that I have limited ministerial experience,” Kobayashi said. “But I do not believe that the number of posts one has held alone determines the ability to lead the nation powerfully. What matters is steadfastness, the power to envision and the strong will to achieve.”
He pointed to his time as economic security minister, when he proposed the concept of space security and persuaded Japan’s Science Council to shift course and accept research of technologies that have dual civilian and military use.
With an eye toward the needs of younger generations, Kobayashi promised to reduce their social insurance premium burdens through the greater digitalization of health care services. But he also said he would call on senior citizens to assume a greater share of the burden.
“For the sake of our youth. I state this point frankly,” Kobayashi said.
Koizumi pointed to the economy as the most urgent issue and said his first priority as the party's new leader would be to address the concerns of those struggling with the high cost of living.
“My role is to break through the barriers of conventional economic management from the deflation era and build a new economic framework for the inflation era. As the first step toward this, I will immediately formulate economic measures centered on countering high prices and submit a supplementary budget to back these measures to the extraordinary Diet session this autumn,” he said.
In addition to policy issues, the candidates must deal with political questions about how they’ll manage the LDP’s relationship with its coalition partner, Komeito, and what their plans are for working with the opposition parties in order to pass a supplementary budget and legislation in the autumn session of parliament.
Following the loss of the LDP's majority in July’s Upper House election, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who concurrently serves as LDP president, initially resisted a growing chorus of voices within the party to step down and take responsibility for the third major election loss since he assumed his posts last year.
With Ishiba on his way out, the candidates face the choice of formally asking one of the larger parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People or Nippon Ishin no Kai, to formally join the ruling coalition as a third partner, or to continue the policy adopted by Ishiba of working with the opposition on an issue-by-issue basis.
A third coalition partner would provide the LDP with a reliable majority during the parliamentary session. But it could create problems for the LDP leader with rank-and-file members if the party is seen as compromising too much with the opposition.
In addition, the next LDP president will have to take into account the wishes of Komeito, which has said it can’t form a coalition with any partner whose principles don't align with its own.
Continuing the Ishiba administration’s policy of working with different opposition parties, however, risks further political instability. None of the five candidates indicated Monday which specific opposition party they might favor tying up with.
To win the presidency, a candidate needs a majority of votes from party members, or the first and second place finishers will head to a runoff. There are 590 votes in play during the first round, including 295 parliamentary votes and 295 local chapter votes.
But while there are 295 parliamentary votes in a runoff, there are only 47 local votes, one for each party chapter, making parliamentary support the difference between victory or defeat.
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