France's fourth prime minister in three years, Francois Bayrou faces almost certain defeat in a confidence vote on Monday, tipping the euro zone's second-biggest economy further into political uncertainty. The government's collapse looks set to deepen France's paralysis at a critical time for Europe, which is seeking unity in the face of Russia's war against Ukraine, an increasingly dominant China and trade tensions with the United States.
The turmoil also threatens France's ability to rein in its debt, with the risk of further credit downgrades looming as bond spreads — a gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold French debt — widen. France faces acute pressure to repair its finances, with last year's deficit nearly double the EU's 3% limit of economic output and public debt at 113.9% of GDP.
The confidence vote is slated for Monday afternoon. Despite a frenzy of talks and media appearances since his decision to throw his hat into the ring on Aug. 25 amid tense debates over a budget bill, Bayrou appeared over the weekend to have failed to secure a majority.
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