Approaching what is arguably the most internationally contested area in all of Asia, it didn't take long for the Philippine Air Force pilot to be reminded of the increasingly tense situation in the South China Sea’s heavily militarized Spratly island chain.
Not one, not two, but 16 flares were launched from China's military base on Subi Reef in late August as he flew a maritime patrol past the man-made feature on his way to Pag-asa Island — population 400 — which sits on the front line of a simmering territorial dispute between Beijing and Manila.
"They fired flares and issued radio challenges," the pilot said about the incident, which was also witnessed by a Japan Times reporter aboard the flight.
Although to the untrained eye, the move might have seemed escalatory, officials in Manila say the incident — the latest involving Chinese and Philippine forces in the strategically important waters and airspace of the resource-rich South China Sea, where the two nations have overlapping claims of sovereignty — was merely par for the course.
"They claim we are entering Chinese territory without permission, while we respond that this is Philippine territory,” the pilot said.
With breathtaking white-sand beaches and crystal-clear waters, Pag-asa would seem like an idyllic setting were it not on the doorstep of an intensifying power struggle with a rising superpower.
The Philippines formally annexed Pag-asa, which is also known as Thitu Island, as its westernmost territory in 1978. At just 37 hectares — roughly the size of 52 FIFA soccer fields — the feature may seem like just another tiny speck in the West Philippine Sea, Manila's designation for the South China Sea waters within the country's exclusive economic zone.
Yet Pag-asa’s location astride key maritime trade routes gives it immense strategic importance, particularly against the backdrop of the territorial disputes and the intensifying U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry.
Although a 2016 ruling by an international tribunal invalidated China’s sovereignty claims over most of the South China Sea, Beijing has ignored the decision, doubling down, instead, on its claims to virtually the entire waterway by accelerating the construction of artificial islands, militarizing them and maintaining a large maritime presence in the area.
This explains why Pag-asa — meaning “hope” in Tagalog — is surrounded by an armada of Chinese vessels. This includes a mix of navy, coast guard and “maritime militia” assets that are often so close to the shore that they are clearly visible to the naked eye.
Pag-asa is in a dangerous neighborhood. It's one of the numerous features in the Spratly archipelago claimed by several countries, with Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also competing over sovereignty and control of parts of these strategic waters.
China's military base at Subi Reef — equipped with gun batteries, missile shelters, advanced radars and hangars for fighter aircraft — is only about 22 kilometers away. Other facilities, such as those on Mischief Reef and Fiery Cross, aren’t far off either. From these and other nearby bases, aircraft, boats and unmanned systems are regularly deployed to monitor activities on Pag-asa and nearby features.
Beijing began conducting rapid and large-scale reclamation projects on seven Spratly features around 2014. Fast forward 11 years, and China now controls a network of military bases that have dramatically improved its intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities, while also allowing it to forward-deploy, sustain and resupply aircraft and warships patrolling the area.
“Pag-asa is at the gateway of China’s expansionist ambitions both in the West Philippine Sea and the rest of the South China Sea,” Philippine Navy Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad, the Armed Forces of the Philippines spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, said in an interview.
While China’s military presence could theoretically be used to enforce an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over these waters, its bases, including those on the Paracel Islands farther north, are more commonly used to assert de facto control over strategic locations, including fishing grounds and hot spots such as Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, known in the Philippines as Bajo de Masinloc and Ayungin Shoal, respectively.
These two features, in particular, have seen a surge in Chinese maritime activity in recent weeks as the number of incidents — from collisions at sea to dangerously close aerial encounters — continues to rise, with neither side willing to back down.
At Second Thomas Shoal, tensions came to a head in June last year, when the China Coast Guard, the world’s largest, and other government vessels interfered with a Philippine Navy mission aimed at resupplying the garrison atop the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting ship that the Philippine government purposely grounded in 1999 to assert sovereignty over the atoll.
More recently, in late August, the Chinese Navy deployed for the first time a tugboat to the area, prompting Manila to warn Beijing that any attempt to board or tow away the Sierra Madre would be viewed as “crossing a red line.”
John Bradford, founder and executive director of the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, said that in 2012, when China seized Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines saw few options to push back, as Washington sought to deescalate the affair by negotiating with Beijing.
“Things have since changed, as leaders in neither Manila nor Washington are willing to see a repeat of that failure,” Bradford said, pointing out that the Philippines has boosted its ability to respond while reinforcing its mutual defense treaty with the U.S.
“This means that a new or similar crisis would much more likely escalate into conflict," he added.
While there are many factors affecting bilateral ties, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s May 2022 election has arguably brought about the biggest course correction, with the Philippine president adopting a more assertive stance on the disputes and vowing not to lose “an inch" of territory.
Besides restricting Philippine access to traditional fishing grounds, Beijing’s military buildup also poses a potential threat to Pag-asa itself. The island, which is the largest Philippine-occupied feature in the Spratlys, is also claimed by China, which calls it Zhongye Dao.
While the situation there has remained relatively calm, Manila isn’t taking any chances.
Besides maintaining a military outpost on Pag-asa, the Philippine government has been upgrading its defenses, including through infrastructure projects such as a sheltered port, a beaching ramp, an aircraft hangar, a Philippine Coast Guard station and an improved airstrip that can accommodate military cargo aircraft.
“For us, Pag-asa serves as a critical staging ground for the defense and security of our country as it affords us strategic depth,” Trinidad said.
“It provides us with a buffer zone from mainland Palawan,” he said. Pag-asa is a part of Palawan province, the capital of which sits nearly 600 km from Manila.
With this in mind, Trinidad said, new troop deployments and projects are planned as part of a broader push to fortify Pag-asa and other strategic features in the area. The government has already earmarked funds this year for several civilian and military projects, including the development of a small airport, spending that will also provide jobs for the local population.
Besides defending the island, one of the Philippine forces’ objectives on Pag-asa is to keep a close watch on Chinese military movements and activities in the area — and make sure that China doesn’t make any additional unlawful territorial grabs.
This comes after China Coast Guard personnel made international headlines in April by briefly unfurling the country’s flag and symbolically claiming sovereignty over Sandy Cay, a tiny sand bank that lies just over 3 km from Pag-asa.
China’s bold move reinvigorated calls to enhance Pag-asa’s response capabilities as soon as possible, with some government officials stressing that “time is of the essence.”
“A strong Pag-asa means we could checkmate China’s advances at the Subi, Mischief or Johnson reefs,” Trinidad said, referring to another of China’s man-made islets in the Spratly chain.
Pag-asa, Trinidad added, could eventually also serve to project military power and host additional assets, including advanced unmanned systems, as Philippine forces look to take a page from Ukraine on the use of drones.
Although the Philippines regularly trains with allied and partner forces, such as those from the United States, Japan and Australia, no joint activities are currently held on or around Pag-asa — part of a concerted effort to avoid exacerbating tensions with the Chinese, according to government officials.
While the military presence on Pag-asa certainly plays a key role in Manila’s push to assert its sovereignty claims, it is only part of its strategy.
The island is also the only one in the area with a permanent civilian population, an important element that Manila often highlights to justify its claims.
The government has been incentivizing Filipinos to move to the island by offering subsidized food, housing, education and health care — an approach that seems to be working, despite Pag-asa's remote location some 300 km west of mainland Palawan.
“Over the past 20 years, the population has grown from six families to 77, with about 100 school-age children,” said Island Coordinator Danilo Belono, a municipal official. To improve living conditions on the island, which is under the jurisdiction of the Kalayaan municipality in Palawan, several additional facilities such as a hospital, a farm and a church are being built.
Most of Pag-asa’s residents lead quiet lives relying on monthly food and medical supplies delivered in large part by sea.
Larry Hugo, a fisherman who said his boat was nearly rammed by a China Coast Guard ship in 2021, said that fish supplies around the island were abundant 17 years ago but that the situation began worsening when Vietnamese vessels started using cyanide to catch fish.
This, alongside increasing Chinese fishing and reclamation activities, damaged the nearby reefs. Now, with Chinese “maritime militia” and government vessels preventing access to certain areas, local fishermen have been forced to operate closer to home.
The catch is still enough for local consumption, but the island is no longer exporting fish to the mainland Palawan, said Hugo, who has had to take on a construction job to boost his income.
Asked about their views about what the future holds amid China’s growing assertiveness and rising geopolitical tensions, residents often offered a mere shrug.
“We have no quarrel with them,” said one resident who asked not to be identified.
“We just want to continue to live in peace and see no issues as long as they respect our territory.”
Should the situation boil over, the resident added, “the country’s military and law enforcement agencies are already there to protect us.”
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