The government is set to begin a fundamental review of its immigration policy, including whether to impose caps, as Japan sees the number of foreign nationals increase rapidly, according to a report released Friday by Justice Minister Keisuke Suzuki.

A new task force is expected to be established soon in order to conduct surveys on the impacts of rising foreign resident numbers, with the findings to be used in shaping future immigration policies.

The main concern, according to the report, is to prevent social division between foreign nationals and citizens, as seen in other Group of Seven developed nations. Caps on foreign nationals coming into the country may be considered “if signs emerge that friction has exceeded tolerable levels,” the report says.

“Other countries have struggled with integration, leading in many cases to social division or political turmoil. Japan, too, must prepare early,” Suzuki said during a news conference Friday.

Since February, the minister has held a series of private meetings with academics familiar with immigration policies to identify key issues regarding the acceptance of foreign nationals. The interim report, completed after six months of debate, points out that “as the proportion of foreign nationals rises, the impact on Japanese society will grow, and various complex challenges may arise.”

“We are currently facing population decline, and at the same time, foreign resident numbers are increasing at an accelerating pace,” he added. “With the foreign resident percentage projected to reach 10%, it is essential to forecast and analyze what kind of society and economy Japan will become, and to examine our fundamental approach to foreign resident policy.”

Foreign residents currently make up just 2.82% of Japan’s population, but the figure is projected to reach 10.8% by 2070. However, declining birthrates and the rising number of foreign residents could accelerate that timeline. The number of births in Japan in 2024 fell below 690,000, a level that had not been expected until 2039, according to the report.

Meanwhile, the number of foreign residents has surged in recent years, increasing 300,000 annually since the end of the pandemic, and topping 350,000 in 2024.

“Until now, there has been little strategic debate on the necessity or limits of accepting foreign residents, or on frameworks for quantitative management and system adjustments,” Suzuki added. “That is our key concern.”

The report released Friday stresses that Japan is at a turning point and that current ad-hoc measures on immigration are no longer sufficient.

The report identifies seven categories that need to be discussed in regards to foreign immigration: economic growth, industrial policy, labor policy, taxation and social security, community life, public safety and immigration control.

Without “unified long-term policy,” increases in foreign residents could significantly affect daily life in Japan, including wages, working conditions, social security systems and public safety, the report warns.

It recommends building multiple economic growth scenarios based on different scales of intake of foreign nationals, clarifying the roles of national and local governments and establishing programs to better integrate them into society to ease friction in communities with growing foreign populations.

The report also proposed strengthening immigration measures and oversight, introducing electronic travel authorization by 2028, reducing the average screening process for applicants seeking asylum to six months by 2030, expanding deportation capacity and tightening crackdowns on those working illegally.

With regards to business, student and professional visa categories, the report outlined reforms and urged closer coordination between the Immigration Services Agency and the Justice Ministry, which separately deal with approval of permanent residency and naturalization.

The report also called for the need to consider what would happen if Japan caps the number of specified skilled workers and less skilled workers aimed at becoming skilled workers under a new training program to be launched in fiscal 2027.

“Safeguarding the safety and security of Japanese citizens must remain the government’s top priority,” the report says. “Japan must work toward true coexistence with foreign nationals, while preparing for an era when foreign nationals comprise 10% of the population.”