Li Shangfu’s removal from key Chinese government posts, including the defense portfolio, ends nearly two months of speculation over his fate.
And while questions remain over his firing, one thing is clear: An avenue for resuming high-level military talks with the U.S. is now open.
Li — who was sanctioned by the United States, presenting an obstacle toward improving ties — was dismissed from his position as defense chief and was also stripped of his more powerful post as a state councilor on Tuesday, state-run media reported, in a move backed by President Xi Jinping. The former defense minister had last been seen in public at an event on Aug. 29.
No reason for the dismissal was given and a replacement was not immediately named, though Gen. Liu Zhenli, a rare combat veteran and the head of the military body responsible for China's combat operations and planning, has emerged as a top contender.
China’s top legislative body also removed former Foreign Minister Qin Gang the same day from his state councilor post, following his unceremonious dismissal as top envoy in August after a monthlong disappearance.
Widespread speculation over the missing ministers kicked off in July when Qin disappeared. According to a Wall Street Journal report in September, he had been removed after fathering a child in the U.S. during a long-rumored extramarital affair while serving as ambassador to Washington, potentially compromising Chinese national security.
News of more purges further raised eyebrows in August, when two of the most senior officials in the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force — which oversees the country’s land-based missile and nuclear arsenals — were ousted, part of an apparent attempt to install more loyal officials and crack down on corruption inside the force.
The ousted defense chief has reportedly been placed under investigation, together with eight other senior officials, over alleged corruption during his time as head of the military’s equipment procurement unit.
While the scope of the charges against Li remains unclear, Joel Wuthnow, an expert on the Chinese military and senior fellow at the Pentagon-funded National Defense University in Washington, said they are presumably connected with his procurement role.
“But there’s no indication how serious this might be or whether it is related to rumors of graft in the Rocket Force,” he said. “All we can say for sure is that Xi lost confidence in Li and the other ministers that were removed today.”
In a twist, Xi’s apparent decision to get his house in order also came the same day that Beijing and Washington announced Qin’s replacement, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, would visit Washington later this week. Wang is expected to use the trip to lay the groundwork for a hotly anticipated summit between Xi and U.S. President Joe Biden next month on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco.
But Daniel Russel, a former top U.S. diplomat for Asia, downplayed any link between Li’s dismissal and Wang’s visit, as the two countries look to put a floor under their increasingly antagonistic relationship.
“The timing of the announcement on Li Shangfu is a function of the NPC Executive Committee schedule, not a cryptic signal to the United States,” said Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “There are complicated internal politics at work behind these personnel changes — including the sequence of removal from government and party posts — that have little or nothing to do with the relationship with the United States.”
Concerns about the opacity of Xi’s government had surged in recent weeks amid Li’s unexplained absence and the lack of clarity on Qin’s fate. It also threw into doubt momentum toward better managing the U.S.-China relationship.
Although the posts of foreign and defense ministers are largely symbolic under the Chinese system — Qin was not the country’s top diplomat and Li did not oversee combat forces — the pair were widely seen as important faces representing Beijing’s diplomatic and military policy to the outside world.
But clarity into their fates could actually help improve U.S.-China ties, which have plummeted to fresh lows in recent months over a range of issues, including U.S. semiconductor export controls, Taiwan and the disputed South China Sea.
In particular, the timing of Li’s firing could prove opportune for the Pentagon — which has for months sought a reopening of high-level military-to-military channels closed by China after then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s August 2022 visit to Taiwan.
Beijing had demanded that U.S. sanctions imposed on him in 2018 over China’s purchase of Russian weapons be lifted as a condition for improving military ties. But with Li now out of the picture, experts say China would now be able to save face if it were to agree to high-level defense talks, including a meeting of the two countries’ defense chiefs.
“We don’t know yet who Li’s replacement will be,” said Wuthnow. “But whoever it is, it won’t be someone under U.S. sanctions, so the Chinese side won’t worry about losing face if they go ahead with a ministerial level meeting.”
While media reports have said that Liu is expected to be named Li’s successor, it remains unclear if he will indeed take up the post.
Liu is seen as “a star” in the Chinese military because of his combat experience in border clashes with Vietnam in the 1980s and because of his role as a leader in reforming the ground forces, according to Wuthnow.
“He has done some military engagement in his current role in the Joint Staff Department, including conversations with his Russian counterpart,” Wuthnow said. “But he will need to quickly get up to speed as China’s top military diplomat, if he does indeed take the job.”
More immediately, China could be left without a defense chief as it hosts foreign defense officials at the Beijing Xiangshan Forum starting Sunday if no successor is quickly named. A U.S. delegation will attend the forum, and senior American defense officials have said they hope to use the event to help “kick-start” military-to-military engagements with China.
Senior Biden administration officials have repeatedly voiced a need for reopening military channels, calling them crucial for staving off a miscalculation or miscommunication that could spiral into full-blown conflict.
Those calls have grown more acute as the U.S.-China rivalry surges into overdrive in both countries. But Beijing may expect some kind of a quid-pro-quo for backtracking on its stance of not reopening the frozen defense channels without unspecified "practical moves" by Washington that it claims will create the "proper atmosphere" for military talks.
Bonnie Glaser, a China expert and managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, said any decision on the issue is likely to come in November.
“I expect this will be left for Biden and Xi to discuss next month,” she said.
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