NATO has an increasingly tricky problem in its backyard: how to confront the spillover from Russia’s war without sparking further escalation.

As Ukraine reaps a bumper harvest, Russia is targeting the export routes that run from the ports around Odesa. That’s forcing grain ships on a new path that hugs the Romanian coastline, bringing the threat of attacks closer and closer to NATO’s shores.

Romanian radar detected a breach of its territory last weekend, the latest in a string of such incidents, while Bulgaria next door has found drone debris on its soil. Off shore, drifting sea mines and GPS-jamming that risks marine collisions are pushing the 31-member alliance into taking a stance.