Three months after China struck a controversial security deal with the Solomon Islands, Washington and four of its allies announced the establishment of a new mechanism to ramp up engagement with Pacific island nations.

The “Partners in the Blue Pacific” (PBP) initiative is meant as an “inclusive and informal” way to support Pacific priorities more effectively and efficiently amid “growing pressure on the rules-based free and open international order,” said the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and New Zealand in a joint statement issued on June 24.

At the same time, analysts agree that the main intention behind the grouping is to increase influence with the Pacific islands amid concerns over China’s growing activities in the region.

Over the years, Beijing has significantly bolstered its economic ties with the 14 sovereign Pacific island countries, such as the Solomon Islands, Fiji and Tonga. Although these nations receive less of China’s attention and resources than other parts of the world, Beijing has included the region in its key diplomatic and economic development policy — the Belt and Road initiative — which suggests it has geostrategic interests in this region.

Describing the PBP as part of efforts to “harness our collective strength through closer cooperation,” the five countries pointed to areas where they plan to deepen engagement with the region, both individually and collectively. These include connectivity and transportation, maritime security and protection, health, prosperity, education, and tackling the climate crisis.

“The PBP represents a serious commitment of the traditional powers to re-engage with countries in this region and maintain the existing regional order,” said Denghua Zhang, a research fellow at the Australian National University.

The five countries, which provide a combined $2.1 billion in development assistance to the Pacific islands, said they aim to map existing projects and plan future ones, seeking to drive resources, remove duplication, and close gaps in line with the “2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent” — a regional strategy envisaged by the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) to protect and secure Pacific people, places and prospects.

Founded in 1971, the PIF is the region’s premier political and economic policy organization, and comprises 18 members, including PBP members Australia and New Zealand.

Re-engaging with the region

The joint statement has been criticized by some for being short on specifics, but the reason for this is that the PIF’s long-term “Blue Pacific Continent” strategy is largely aspirational at this stage, said Richard Herr, an expert on the Pacific islands at the University of Tasmania.

The PBP is designed to associate the five partnering states with the PIF strategy, which the U.S., the U.K. and Japan are not a part of. “While largely a political statement, the declaration of the PBP alliance is intended to show respect and support for the development priorities of the regional states,” Herr said.

“Assuming the PBP initiative gains traction with the PIF states, it will expand trade and economic integration as well strengthen the PIF’s long-standing Western alignment.”

Uptick in Chinese activities

In April, China’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that Beijing had signed a minimum five-year security agreement with the Solomon Islands that allows the country to request police and military assistance from China to maintain social order.

The agreement, which led some to worry that China could also establish a military presence in the Solomons, was followed by Beijing’s attempt to secure a region-wide multilateral economic, free trade and security pact with 10 Pacific island nations.

However, action on the draft agreement — termed the Five-Year Action Plan on Common Development — was deferred after concerns were raised by some of the island nations during a meeting held in late May.

Despite the setback, the recent uptick in Chinese activities in the region has set off alarm bells in the U.S. and allied countries.

“China has been making inroads in recent years, acting more or less unimpeded, and buying its influence with regional states,” said Jeffrey Hornung, a senior political scientist at the U.S.-based Rand Corporation. “Much to the chagrin of the U.S., Beijing’s recent agreement with the Solomon Islands served as a wake-up call that neglecting the region comes at a cost.”

Key meeting ahead

Against this backdrop, the timing of the PBP launch is important because it offers the PIF countries an alternative — something that has been more or less lacking in recent years because of U.S. inactivity — as they prepare to discuss China’s regional initiatives in more detail at the next leaders meeting in mid-July.

The chances of success for the PBP will depend on two factors, according to Herr. The first will be the PIF leaders’ response at the upcoming meeting in Fiji’s capital, Suva.

“If they embrace the PBP as an important repositioning of the five partnering nations to become significant contributors to the PIF’s ‘Blue Pacific’ strategy, then it will stand a chance of becoming incorporated into the regional development fabric,” he said.

The second will be whether the PBP can deliver on the new expectations they have created.

“If this initiative can actually strengthen Pacific regionalism, sovereignty, transparency and accountability, as they say it will, then it is an important endeavor, and will likely work against Chinese interests,” Hornung said.

The launch of the PBP has drawn sharp criticism from China, with the Foreign Ministry in Beijing warning that such initiatives “should not be designed to form exclusive blocs, still less target any third party or undermine its interests.”

The state-owned Global Times newspaper went even further, calling the new initiative an “unofficial expansion” of the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S.

Analysts, however, disagree with this view. They argue that, unlike AUKUS, which is a security grouping focused on military-technological cooperation and posturing options, the PBP is more of a public diplomacy endeavor meant to address and provide more attention to the nontraditional security issues of these islands.

“While the common denominator is an attempt to push back on Chinese influence and initiatives, the way they go about doing that could not be more different,” Hornung said.

Growing pressure to choose sides?

As for the PBP, there are some who worry that this may be another mechanism that will put pressure on these islands to choose sides as the world moves toward an increasingly bipolar order, in economic, technological, and geopolitical terms.

However, others such as Herr and Hornung argue that the move is simply a concerted effort by the traditional powers to support the region’s new collective development strategy.

“The timing and content of the PBP is expected to help reinforce the historic alignment of the region,” Herr said. “Thus, much will depend on whether the PIF states perceive the PBP as such or rather as a binary choice between China and the sponsors of the PBP.”