Six months into his term and three months before the Upper House election, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is seeing good polling numbers, with polls by JNN and Yomiuri over the weekend showing his Cabinet enjoyed a 59% approval rating. By contrast, his predecessor Yoshihide Suga had a 44% and 48% approval rate in the same two polls after his first six months.

Despite increasing cases of COVID-19 and rising food and gas prices due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine — which could dent his popularity in the weeks to come — the poll numbers mean that his rivals within the Liberal Democratic Party are on the defensive for the time being. Especially former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Kishida and Abe have had a strained relationship since the LDP presidential election last September, when Abe initially backed Sanae Takaichi, a close ideological ally, over Kishida. She lost in the first round of voting, and Kishida became leader in a run-off election, putting him on course to become prime minister.

Abe then reportedly wanted Kishida to make Takaichi the party's powerful secretary-general. While Akira Amari initially got the job, he was forced to resign after losing his seat in the Oct. 31 election. But Takaichi did not get the post then, either. Instead, former Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi was moved into the role, and Kishida also appointed his close ally and long-time Abe adversary Yoshimasa Hayashi as foreign minister.

Following the invasion of Ukraine, the Kishida administration has received praise from its Group of Seven partners for its leadership and willingness to quickly impose sanctions on Russia. But the conflict has created problems for Abe due to his past relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Abe pursued a close relationship with Putin in the hope of securing the return of Russia-controlled islands off Hokkaido, known as the Northern Territories in Japan, and a peace treaty between the two nations, which was never signed after the end of World War II.

“Abe long boasted of his relationship with Putin and was proud of his diplomatic efforts on behalf of the Japan-Russian relationship," said political commentator Tetsuo Suzuki. "But in the end, the only thing Abe did was indulge Putin. His efforts to get Putin to return the Northern Territories and sign a peace treaty ended in failure.

"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has now put that failure under close political and media scrutiny.”

Due to Abe’s relationship with Putin, he is not in a position to offer heavy criticism of Kishida’s policy on Ukraine. The conflict is therefore an opportunity for the prime minister to distinguish himself further from Abe on foreign policy issues, as well as attempt to control Abe’s strength within the LDP, Suzuki added.

On the domestic front, Kishida recently faced an intraparty squabble between Motegi and Takaichi over a meeting between the secretaries-general of the LDP, its ruling coalition partner Komeito and the opposition Democratic Party of the People. In mid-March, the three parties reached an agreement to establish a working group on whether to invoke a trigger clause that would temporarily reduce the gasoline tax in an effort to control rising prices at the pump.

Takaichi said she was not contacted about the LDP meeting to discuss policy on the issue, even though as the party’s policy chief she should have been, and Motegi was forced to apologize. Whether or not the snub was intentional, Motegi, like Takaichi, has his eyes on the future.

“Motegi has full confidence in his own abilities and is aiming to become prime minister someday. He believes he is in charge of the relationship with Komeito in particular," Suzuki said. "He’s looking carefully at Kishida’s situation and probably thinks it's better to work with Kishida, given his popularity, than with Abe and Takaichi.”

In addition to their personal rivalry, Kishida and Abe head their own factions and are looking ahead to the Upper House election — campaigning for which is expected to kick off June 22, with the poll taking place July 10 — as an opportunity to boost their numbers. Abe heads the LDP's largest faction, with 94 members, while Kishida's faction has 45 members.

At the moment, Suzuki doesn’t see the total numbers for either the Abe or Kishida factions changing that drastically after the Upper House election. Both have a number of established veterans who are currently favored to win.

On the other hand, events in Ukraine and Kishida's popularity mean that Abe's power behind the scenes is not what it was, even if he does still remain a formidable figure and head the largest faction. But that could make him all the more dangerous for the prime minister.

“Slowly but surely, Abe’s influence within the party is starting to weaken,” Suzuki said. "But once Ukraine settles down and the Upper House election is finished, Abe will strike back at Kishida, and the rivalry between the two is likely to intensify further."