The domestic nuclear industry will miss a government target of providing at least a fifth of the country's electricity by 2030, analysis shows, but the sector is showing signs of life more than seven years since the Fukushima crisis.

With eight reactors running and one more set to come online in November, nuclear has this year overtaken nonhydro renewables in power output for the first time since the 2011 catastrophe, when all of the country's nuclear plants were idled.

Yet operators can expect as few as six units to restart in the next five years, and fewer than 20 by 2030, the analysis shows. That is far short of the 30 needed to meet the government target reiterated this year.