Ruling parties likely to win over two-thirds of Lower House, poll suggests

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and its ruling coalition partner, Komeito, are expected to win more than a two-thirds majority in the Lower House on Sunday, the latest Kyodo News poll suggests.

The LDP alone could even win more than 300 of the 475 seats and secure the two-thirds majority required to propose a revision to the pacifist Constitution.

The figure is far higher than Abe’s minimal goal of securing an overall majority of 238 seats with Komeito, and exceeds the 295 seats that the LDP held before Abe dissolved the Lower House last month.

Kyodo’s telephone survey, conducted on Sunday and Monday, showed that the Democratic Party of Japan is unlikely to pose a threat to the LDP, as it is projected to win around 70 seats, up from 62 before the start of the campaign.

Among other opposition parties, Ishin no To (Japan Innovation Party) is estimated to win fewer seats, while the Japanese Communist Party is likely to fare better than in the previous Lower House election in December 2012 and nearly double its seats, according to the poll.

Komeito could win more than the 31 seats it previously held. Jisedai no To (Party for Next Generations) may lose a considerable number of seats, while Seikatsu no To (People’s Life Party) and the Social Democratic Party also appear to be struggling, according to the poll.

Shinto Kaikaku (New Renaissance Party) may not win a single seat.

LDP candidates are expected to win nearly 240 of the 295 single-seat districts, and could even win a record 77 seats or more out of the 180 allotted based on proportional representation.

DPJ candidates led the poll in around 30 districts and remain sluggish in the proportional representation section, where they could win 30 to 40 seats.

The survey covered 114,298 randomly selected households with eligible voters, of whom 81,198 provided valid answers. Some 43.0 percent of respondents said they were undecided in their single-seat district, while 40.7 percent were still undecided about which party to vote for in proportional representation.

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