When Sunni rebels rose up against Syria's Bashar Assad in 2011, Turkey reclassified its protege as a pariah, expecting him to lose power within months and join the autocrats of Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen on the scrap heap of the Arab Spring.

Assad, in contrast, shielded diplomatically by Russia and with military and financial support from Iran and its Shiite allies in Lebanon's Hezbollah, warned that the fires of Syria's sectarian war would burn its neighbors.

For Turkey, despite the confidence of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, elected this summer to the presidency after 11 years as prime minister and three straight general election victories, Assad's warning is starting to ring uncomfortably true.