You don't have to read gossip columns to know that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have been seeing a lot of each other lately.

But romance is far from the scene in their meetings. The two participated in the G8 summit held June 6 to June 8 in Heiligendamm, Germany, and prior to that, they met at the EU-Japan Summit, which took place in Berlin the day before. And later in August, Chancellor Merkel will visit Japan.

One of the key areas where the two leaders are very much in agreement is the environment. Merkel managed to persuade the other G8 leaders to sign off on a plan to reduce global-warming gases by 50 percent.

One important detail is that this target is supposed to be achieved in 2050 — a date close enough in the future to suggest the G8 is genuinely concerned but far enough away to assure that nothing actually need be done now.

The agreement contains neither binding obligations nor a specific budget, so from the standpoint of the environmental lobby, it is just more hot air. Nevertheless, this document boasts one feature the Kyoto Protocol does not: a signature from the president of the United States.

In this respect, the outcome of the Heiligendamm summit deserves greater recognition, because the U.S. has long resisted even acknowledging the topic, let alone agreeing that something must be done about it. Abe was not shy in claiming some credit for his role in the deal, which has been dubbed "Cool Earth 50," a title somewhat reminiscent of former Prime Minister Koizumi's Cool Biz energy-saving initiative.

Meanwhile, Merkel's successes continued at the European Council in late June, where the sticky question of drafting a single Constitution for the entire EU was debated.

It was a notion that has been rejected twice by plebiscites in Holland and France, but one that Merkel was somehow able to salvage. She was able to unite all 27 member states behind new proposals on voting mechanisms, but only through a careful rewording: The document in question is no longer referred to as a Constitution, but a treaty.

To achieve these amendments took a great deal of maneuvering and diplomatic skill, because Poland was staunchly against the question of voting within the EU, while Britain was opposed to constitutional amendments that would threaten its sovereignty. Getting all the parties on one side required a tough stance, combined with just the right amount of compromise, a mix she was able to obtain with the cooperation of newly elected French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Chancellor Merkel then has been enjoying a string of victories in foreign policy, something that Abe can only regard with envy. A series of scandals has battered his popularity at home, where it is sinking to new lows in media opinion polls. The pension scandal, the suicide of the agriculture minister and other debacles have led Abe to recently announce that he will decline his summer bonus pay as a gesture to appease the infuriated Japanese public.

But the comparison between Abe and Merkel is, admittedly, an unfair one. For Merkel, solving the question of the EU impasse has a huge impact on her presence in Germany, as it is a vital question to the electorate. In Abe's case, however, getting credit for protecting the earth may not be enough to save his reputation at home, where his fate will be determined by a critical election later this month.

Japan will play host to the next G8 summit in Hokkaido at the Lake Toya hot-spring resort. It was a deliberate choice by Abe to bring attention once again to the environment as a key issue for future discussions. Indeed it will be Abe's task, if he is still in office, to convince his counterparts to agree to binding targets for Cool Earth 50, which, given the history of the global warming discussion so far, cannot be considered a given.

Given his string of failures in domestic policy, it is difficult to say what sort of impact a positive 2008 summit will have on Abe's leadership. And it also remains to be seen how strong an agreement can emerge from the talks. Very much will depend on the degree of diplomacy and leadership Japan puts on display. With regard to its weak track record in traditional foreign policy, the environment is the one topic that probably offers Japan the most potential for success.

One of the appealing factors of the Cool Earth proposal is how vague it really is. Nevertheless, Abe was also successful at selling the idea to Chinese President Hu Jintao, which must be considered a valuable milestone. If Abe can steal a page from Chancellor Merkel's book and leverage this partnership as she did with Sarkozy, he might be able to achieve real, binding emissions targets that make everyone happy — including his own electorate.

No doubt that would be a change in climate Abe would love to see.

For related stories:
Abe and EU agree emissions goal key
Abe urges emissions halved by '50 globally
Japan to seek 50% global emissions cut at G8 meet