The balance of power shifts in Japan’s politics

Sunday’s election upended Japanese politics. The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic of Japan and its junior partner Komeito took a beating, leaving Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his government in limbo. The leading opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, picked up many of the seats that the coalition lost, but not enough to form a government.

The results leave smaller parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People in particular, with considerable power. The DPP may prove to be the kingmaker in the Nov. 11 Lower House vote to name the prime minister and exercise influence over the resulting government. The relationship between the coalition and the DPP looks to be tentative at best, however, and Japanese politics will remain unstable.

The LDP was punished at the polls last weekend, hammered by the political funds scandal and a seeming loss of direction, losing its absolute majority in the Lower House. Its presence dropped to 191 seats, down from its 247-seat majority in the previous session.

Its coalition partner, Komeito, also suffered: It lost a quarter of its seats, dropping from 32 to 24. As a result, the coalition now holds just 215 seats, 18 short of a majority. This is the first time in 15 years that it has not controlled the assembly.

The CDP picked up 50 seats, growing its presence to 148. That is an impressive showing but it isn’t enough to win over other opposition parties and independent members to claim a majority either. The second largest opposition party, Nippon Ishin no Kai, lost ground, falling from 43 seats in the previous legislature to 38 in the new one.

The most impressive performance was by the DPP, which quadrupled its seats to 28, making it the fourth-largest party in the Lower House. The remaining seats in parliament are held by the Japan Communist Party, which has eight seats, along with other smaller parties and independents. Many of these independents were LDP members who were forced out due to their involvement in the scandal that helped lead to former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's departure from office. It is likely that they will either rejoin the LDP in the near future or support it in key votes.

The immediate question is who the Lower House will elect as prime minister and thus have the right to form a government. At this point, Ishiba looks set to remain in place, mostly by default. As LDP president, he will have his party’s support for the vote, along with that of Komeito and those independents. The CDP will back its president, Yoshihiko Noda, but neither man will likely win a majority in the first round of voting since DPP members will support their leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, in that ballot.

If no one secures a majority in round one, only votes for the top two candidates are counted in the second round and only a majority of those are needed to win. Tamaki has said that his party won’t join the ruling coalition.

Holding out would help the LDP but it would also preserve DPP credibility, demonstrating that it is genuinely committed to its party platform rather than the pursuit of power for its own sake. Since most observers credit the party’s strong showing to its agenda — real reform and a commitment to raising wages — which contrasted with the CDP’s tendency to merely criticize the LDP.

The DPP has said that it will work with the LDP on a case-by-case basis. That makes sense as the Ishiba administration remains unpopular. In polls taken just after the election, the ruling coalition garnered just over 30% approval ratings, dropping from around 50% after the new Cabinet was announced. Disapproval ratings topped 50%. Neither the election nor those polls indicate popular support for an opposition-led government either.

In these circumstances, a focus on issues appears to be the best path forward for the DPP, as well as other small parties and independent politicians. Tamaki understands that, explaining that his party will “go policy by policy, cooperating on those that are good and saying no to those that aren't.”

In theory, that stance should focus the government’s attention and promote good governance. It will keep the ruling coalition — whichever parties that includes — from straying too far from the mainstream and obliging it, instead, to pursue policies that help more Japanese.

Senior officials from the LDP and the DPP met this week and their discussions focused on economic measures. The DPP backs initiatives that would increase household income, such as implementing a temporary gas tax cut and raising the level at which second incomes are subject to taxation. The LDP is reported to be considering those proposals in the economic package that will be presented shortly. Inclusion of those measures would show its supporters that the DPP is not interested in power for its own sake but to advance its goals.

As some of DPP’s policies are at odds with those of the LDP, there will be tensions. Expect more negotiations and likely some moderation of the government’s ambitions. If Ishiba’s instincts are, as many suspect, more centrist — in contrast to the party’s right wing — those differences may not prove to be an insuperable obstacle to still greater cooperation.

It would of course be good if all parties adopted this approach and outlook. Instability and the resulting inability to govern are always problems but they will assume special significance after the U.S. election that will be held next week.

No matter who wins that vote, the U.S. will look to Japan as its key ally in the region. The next government will be expected to honor the Kishida administration's pledge to double defense spending and maintain a higher diplomatic profile regionally and in global politics.

The next Japanese government can and must be forthright about the choices the country faces and the consequences of its decisions. Honest debate and self-scrutiny will help set Japan on the path toward resolution of the difficult challenges it faces and eventual political stability. It will not be easy and the process is only beginning.