After two years of pandemic disruption, the Japanese film market returned to business as usual, more or less, in 2022. Four of the top 10 box-office films for the year, led by the Tom Cruise action film “Top Gun: Maverick,” were from Hollywood, a figure reflecting the market share of foreign films for much of the current millennium. In 2021, when Hollywood studios had basically shut down international distribution of their products, only one non-Japanese film was among the top 10 earners: “F9: The Fast Saga.”
But the pandemic has also wrought changes likely to be long-lasting. One is that the mainstream audience, which once made Hollywood movies their default entertainment choice, developed a decided preference for local films, especially anime. For the past four years, the top box-office film in Japan has been a domestically made animated feature, including 2020’s “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba the Movie — Mugen Train,” whose ¥40.4 billion take set a new record for the highest-earning film ever in the Japanese market.
More recently, “The First Slam Dunk,” an animated film based on a long-running basketball manga, raked in ¥8.91 billion as of Jan. 24, seven weeks after its Dec. 2 release. Meanwhile, “Avatar: Way of Water,” the sequel to James Cameron’s 2009 sci-fi blockbuster, had earned only ¥3.71 billion in the five weeks since its Dec. 16 opening, while failing to wrest the No. 1 spot from “The First Slam Dunk” even in its first weekend on release.
By contrast, the original “Avatar” made ¥15.6 billion following its opening here, the highest total of any film for 2010. Commenting on the sequel’s relatively weak numbers, a veteran Hollywood distribution executive privately told me, “It’s not the same world we live in today, theatrically.”
Given these trends, the Japanese box office is likely to be dominated by local films again this year, with those distributed by perennial market leader Toho topping the charts.
The most highly anticipated is “How Do You Live?,” the latest and probably last feature by anime maestro Hayao Miyazaki. Inspired by a 1937 Genzaburo Yoshino novel of the same title, the film — Miyazaki’s first since “When the Wind Rises” in 2013 — will open July 14. Miyazaki’s films regularly out-earned the Hollywood competition for decades, so hopes for this swan song are high, though Miyazaki’s crown as “king of the box office” has long since passed on to others, most notably anime director Makoto Shinkai.
Toho is also releasing a new “Godzilla” film, its first live-action iteration of the iconic franchise since 2016’s “Shin Godzilla.” Directed by Takashi Yamazaki, the maker of many effects-heavy hits, the as-yet-untitled film will open Nov. 3, the same day the original “Godzilla” film was released in 1954. Given the ¥8.25 billion gross of “Shin Godzilla,” Toho is no doubt planning on another win.
Still another Toho release certain to draw fans is the third installment in the “Kingdom” action series, which is set for a summer release. Directed by Shinsuke Sato from a hit comic by Yasuhisa Hara, the series is set in China during the Warring States era (475 to 221 B.C.), but the cast is all Japanese. Sato, the country’s leading action director, also helmed the sci-fi series “Alice in Borderland,” whose second season recently dropped on Netflix.
Meanwhile, the Toei studio has been challenging Toho’s box-office supremacy with “One Piece Film Red,” a Toei Animation feature that was the top Japanese film of 2022. Today, Toei will try to continue its winning streak with “The Legend & Butterfly,” a big-budget period drama made to commemorate the studio’s 70th anniversary. Directed by veteran hitmaker Keishi Otomo, the film centers on the relationship between fabled warlord Oda Nobunaga (Takuya Kimura) and his wife, Nohime (Haruka Ayase).
Another potential Toei smash is “Shin Kamen Rider,” a film based on the tokusatsu (special effects) action series that has generated a plethora of TV shows, films and merchandise since its 1971 debut. Hideaki Anno, a lifelong “Kamen Rider” fan who created the “Evangelion” sci-fi anime series and directed “Shin Godzilla,” helms the film, which is set for release sometime in March.
As for possible major festival winners, the one getting the most media attention is “Monster,” the latest film by Hirokazu Kore-eda. Co-distributors Toho and Gaga have kept a tight lid on the story, which is scripted by TV drama hitmaker Yuji Sakamoto, but they recently announced that Academy Award-winning composer Ryuichi Sakamoto will score the film, while Sakura Ando, who appeared in Kore-eda’s 2018 Cannes Palme d’Or winner “Shoplifters,” will star.
The acclaimed auteur’s two most recent films were shot abroad — “The Truth” (2019) in France and “Broker” (2022) in Korea — but neither did much business in Japan. Toho and Gaga are counting on a return to the hit-making form of “Shoplifters,” which grossed a resounding ¥4.5 billion here. A prize at Cannes, where “Monster” will no doubt make its premiere, could help its earnings prospects following a June 2 opening.
Information is also sparse on “Our Apprenticeship,” Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s follow-up to his 2021 Oscar-winning drama “Drive My Car.” A France-Japan co-production, we know the film will focus on a Japanese girl studying in Paris, but the cast, release date and other details have yet to be announced.
Beyond these would-be blockbusters and festival winners are the many Japanese films by lesser-known talents that will hit cinemas without much media fanfare. Among my must-sees in this group is “Techno Brothers” by Hirobumi Watanabe, who shot all of his seven previous indie features in his native city of Otawara, Tochigi Prefecture. With a score composed by his brother Yuji, the film is a comic musical mash-up of “The Blues Brothers” (1980) and “Leningrad Cowboys Go America” (1989). Hirobumi and Yuji star as the shades-wearing, identically dressed title brothers, who leave Otawara for the open road accompanied by a manager who channels the look and attitude of Vogue editor Anna Wintour.
Cannes may not come calling, but “Techo Brothers” — and other local films made by unique talents, not a production committee — should keep 2023 cinematically interesting.
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