At the heart of the fight over the government shutdown is the fate of health insurance for millions of Americans who may soon face an impossible choice: accept a significant increase in their premiums or take a gamble and forgo coverage.

About 4.2 million people are expected to lose coverage if Congress fails to extend premium subsidies for Affordable Care Act plans, according to the Congressional Budget Office. A separate analysis by KFF found that without the subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of the year, average annual premiums would more than double — from $888 this year to $1,904 in 2026.

Democrats want the subsidies extended permanently, while Republicans are ready to let them lapse. Democrats also want to restore the Medicaid funding cut from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.