Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell rallied a deeply divided committee of policymakers behind an interest rate-cut, tuning out heavy political pressure to find middle ground among officials variously worried by a faltering labor market and lingering inflation concerns.
The quarter-point reduction — the first cut of the year — came after a significant slowdown in job growth and an unprecedented push by the White House for much lower rates. But with the effects of tariffs on inflation still uncertain, Powell made clear that Fed officials will face difficult trade-offs in the coming months as they consider whether to keep cutting.
"It’s challenging to know what to do,” Powell said Wednesday after officials voted 11-1 to lower borrowing costs. "There are no risk-free paths now.”
The decision to cut rates was nearly unanimous, with the lone dissent coming from Fed Gov. Stephen Miran, a close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump who favored a larger reduction. Fed Govs. Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, who in July dissented in favor of a rate cut, supported this week’s move.
Getting that much consensus was a victory for Powell, who in his final months as Fed chair is attempting to ward off the greatest threat to the Fed’s independence in generations. But new projections released Wednesday showed policymakers are still split over the outlook for rates.
The median projection called for two more reductions in 2025, adding one more cut than policymakers saw in June. But six Fed officials penciled in no further rate cuts this year, revealing that a gaggle of policymakers remain deeply concerned about inflation.
One policymaker even suggested the committee should have stayed on hold Wednesday, and through the end of the year. At the other extreme, one Fed official projected the policy rate should be cut another 125 basis points by December.
"Everyone — or all but one — was willing to go along with a 25-basis-point cut today, but the hawkish voices are going to get louder the lower policy rates go because the inflation picture isn’t going to clear up,” said Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at BofA Securities.
Powell conceded the Fed’s job would get more difficult. Previously, he noted, a strong labor market had given officials the leeway to stay on guard against tariff-driven inflation. But since recent jobs reports revealed hiring had dramatically slowed, policymakers have turned more attention to the employment side of their mandate.
"Now it’s a tougher decision, because both sides of the mandate are being challenged,” said Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research. "Moving too much in either direction could significantly put the other side of the mandate off balance.”
Rallying the committee took on more meaning given the cloud of political distractions surrounding the Fed this week. Miran, who is taking unpaid leave from his role as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, was sworn into the Fed board Tuesday morning just in time for the gathering after his confirmation vote in the Senate was fast-tracked.
Meanwhile, the participation of Fed Gov. Lisa Cook, who is undergoing a legal battle to remain in her job after Trump tried to oust her based on unproven allegations of mortgage fraud, was not assured until a court ruling late on Monday.
Pressed repeatedly by reporters about the political threats facing the institution, Powell insisted officials are making decisions based on economic data with the public’s best interest at heart.
"We’re strongly committed to maintaining our independence,” Powell said early on in the press conference.
He once again declined to say whether he plans to step down from the Fed board after his term as chair ends in May. The White House is currently interviewing candidates for his replacement and plans to make a decision in the next few months.
When asked about Miran, Powell downplayed the influence of any one official, emphasizing that policy decisions require broad support.
"There’s 19 participants, of whom 12 vote on a rotating basis,” Powell said. "The only way for any voter to really move things around is to be incredibly persuasive.”
That clearly didn’t happen in Miran’s case, and Powell appeared to draw reassurance from that.
"You will see that there are just a range of views on what to do,” Powell said. "Nonetheless, we came together today at the meeting and acted with a high degree of unity.”
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