Japan and the rest of Asia will likely have to deal with rising protectionism and economic nationalism regardless of who is elected U.S. president this fall, academics and researchers say.

Whether it’s Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, economic security will remain a top priority for the United States, although the two candidates are expected to approach protectionist policies affecting the region in a different way.

The trend is set, and neither is likely to challenge it.

“The 2016 election really shook some prior conventional wisdom on the approach to trade, especially in Asia,” said Jared Mondschein of the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

Understanding the Harris approach to Asian economies is not easy due to the lack of a relevant track record. The working thesis of most academics is that she will maintain many of the policies of President Joe Biden.

“Harris indicated that she would retain the Biden foreign affairs team, at least at the beginning. She doesn't have very strong foreign affairs experience behind her. She will have to catch up,” said Hung Tran, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

“The assumption now is that she will inherit and largely maintain Biden's approach,” Tran said.

The Biden administration followed the Trump administration's lead in making efforts to rebalance trade. Tariffs on aluminum and steel were kept in place, and little was done to cool the trade war with China.

“Biden left everything as it was and added some features, including export control on semiconductors, which has directly affected the Japanese semiconductor manufacturing industry and manufacturing equipment industry,” said Kazuto Suzuki, director of the Institute of Geoeconomics.

Biden also said that he would block the sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel, although his view on that deal is now unclear. Harris has not commented directly on the deal.

“Unfettered free trade agreements are no longer in vogue. We're seeing, in some ways, commonality between the Trump and Biden administrations on this,” Mondschein said.

The differences are in the details. While Trump rolled out tariffs across the board, which the Biden administration has maintained, the current president has pushed for a more targeted approach, focusing mainly on high tech products.

Harris has highlighted this distinction, criticizing the Trump administration's China trade policy as being too broad and ultimately a tax on consumers.

“There's a distinct difference between critical technologies versus shoes and Christmas lights,” Mondschein said.

Efforts to contain China economically are a common theme that is likely to be maintained after the election.

Harris has visited Southeast Asia three times, and Tokyo and Seoul once, and spearheaded efforts to up engagement with the region in order to balance China’s influence. Her public record suggests a commitment to policies that improve U.S. links with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its member states.

“Regardless of who wins in November, you're going to see some continued skepticism of China's economic practices,” Mondschein said.

The vice president’s voting record and comments suggest certain nuances when it comes to trade and investment, and some differences with Biden administration policies are apparent. On some issues, her views are more in line with those of Trump.

As a senator, she voted against the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement, saying it didn’t do enough to protect American jobs. She also opposed what was then known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.

But she also insisted during a presidential primary debate in 2019 that she is “not a protectionist Democrat.”