In February 2023, Daiki Nakamura was picked third overall by this columnist in a theoretical Inside Sumo mock draft.
That was despite the then 22-year-old still being three months away from even setting foot inside a professional sumo ring.
Similarly, on an end-of-year review television show last December, when asked to predict banzuke ranking highs for 2024, I put Nakamura (by then known as Onosato) at ōzeki even though he was still in the sport’s second tier.
While the idea of penning a 900-word victory lap in the wake of Onosato’s Emperor’s Cup triumph is tempting, the truth is that seeing potential greatness in the former Nippon Sport Science University man 15 months ago required no special insight.
Sumo’s latest top division champion had been tearing through the collegiate and amateur circuits at an almost unprecedented clip for several years by that point.
Back-to-back All Japan Sumo Championship wins (with the accompanying title of amateur yokozuna), gold and silver medals at the World Games, and an All Japan College Championship win were just some of the most notable achievements in one of the greatest careers amateur sumo has ever seen.
While it’s true that many former student stars never reach the same heights in the professional ranks, it was obvious from early on that Nakamura was on a different level to run-of-the-mill amateur champions.
Five tournaments into his sekitori (paid ranks) career, Onosato has yet to record a score lower than 11-4.
To put it another way, from the moment he reached the jūryō division last September, Onosato has finished every tournament with enough victories to have won a championship at some point in modern sumo history.
Ten wins is normally considered a good score for everyone except yokozuna, and promotion-chasing ōzeki. While it’s never been enough to claim the Emperor’s Cup in the 15-bout-tournament era, reaching double digit wins is psychologically significant for fans and wrestlers alike.
That Onosato’s worst performance has yet to fall to a level normally spoken about in glowing terms is simply mind blowing.
For all the records that have been broken in recent years, the Ishikawa native arriving in ōzumō and breezing through the sport’s elite divisions without a hiccup for nine months is perhaps the most impressive achievement.
But what is it that makes Onosato so good? Why is he almost certain to reach ōzeki and be in with a realistic shot at becoming just the second-ever amateur yokozuna (after Wajima) to earn the same title in professional sumo?
First and foremost is physique. At 192 centimeters and 177 kilograms, the Nishonoseki stable standout has the perfect dimensions for modern sumo. It isn’t simply a matter of height and weight, either. When seen next to other tall or well-built rikishi, Onosato stands out for his width and proportional symmetry. Neither overly muscular, nor heavyset, the May champion certainly has heft, but also length and suppleness, meaning there isn’t an obvious physical limitation for opponents to target.
What really sets Onosato apart from most other large rikishi, though, is his ability to use that size and weight at speed.
Witness how quickly he stopped his feet and pivoted after Tobizaru’s sidestep on day three of the just-completed meet.
Being able to move that much mass and turn on a dime in an instant after being wrongfooted is breathtaking. The shift happened so quickly that Tobizaru had no chance to capitalize on what ostensibly was a successfully executed move.
The very next day, Onosato exploded out of the blocks so rapidly that it caught veteran Wakamotoharu completely by surprise. What happened next was even more impressive, however.
Wakamotoharu was able to use his experience to turn the tables, got both hands on the mawashi and, with his face in Onosato’s chest, drove forward, as his young opponent found himself with both feet off the ground and two arms flailing in the air — essentially in a lost position.
In a flash, though, Onosato planted one foot, then simultaneously dropped his hips and pivoted, while wrapping his arm around Wakamotoharu’s head and pulling.
That used the veteran’s momentum against him, turning a near-certain loss into a victory of technical exquisiteness.
In terms of signs of potential greatness however, look no further than Onosato’s wins over yokozuna Terunofuji and ōzeki pair Kotozakura and Kirishima.
No one is arguing that sumo is in a golden age, but those are three of the highest-ranked and most accomplished fighters in the sport currently, and Onosato went into the meet without a victory over any of them.
The fact that he defeated all three men isn’t what marks Onosato out as special — it’s the manner in which he did so. Calmly and without fuss the sport’s newest star dispatched its top wrestlers using straightforward basic sumo. There was no need to resort to tricks or unusual moves — Onosato was simply better.
That should send a shiver down the spine of all title hopefuls. Onosato arrived in the top tier of sumo already great and is clearly improving.
It’s clear he isn’t the finished product either — ōzeki Hoshoryu is a puzzle that Onosato has yet to find an answer to. That’s something that evokes memories of the past, when the sheer aggression and unorthodox sumo of Hoshoryu’s uncle Asashoryu utterly trumped the power and technical brilliance of former back-to-back amateur yokozuna Kotomitsuki.
Like Onosato, Kotomitsuki dominated at the collegiate and amateur level and burst onto the ōzumō scene, winning a title early and looking like a future superstar.
That scenario never materialized, but sumo in 2024 isn’t quite as fearsome as it was a quarter century ago, and Onosato looks a step above Kotomitsuki in practically all areas.
Even for those of us who jumped on the bandwagon early, the speed at which the mountain is being climbed is dizzying.
The time to wait and see has already passed. Onosato’s time has arrived, and he is clearly on the path to greatness.
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