Is sound, forward-looking foreign policy still possible? Talking to the statesmen, diplomats, intelligence operatives and scholars gathered at the Munich Security Conference last week, I had my doubts.
Consider U.S.-China relations. It was only just over a month ago that China’s vice premier, Liu He, gave a conciliatory speech that some observers saw as part of a charm offensive aimed at the West. After that, many hoped that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s previously planned trip to China last month would reduce tensions further, building on Liu’s own recent meeting with Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, as well as Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden’s tete-a-tete in Bali in November.
It is precisely because they are leaning into a souped-up competition that both sides seemed eager to put a ceiling on their rivalry, recognizing that more frequent contact is needed to guard against misunderstandings or accidental escalations. But then came the great Chinese balloon chase, which ended any notions of detente. As the large dirigible drifted across the United States, the Biden administration tried to hold its nerve; but public opinion soon exerted itself on national-security decision-making.