Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s unprecedented response represent a watershed in international relations, marking the formal end of the post-Cold War era and setting the stage for seismic geopolitical and geo-economic shifts.

But one defining feature of international relations will remain: To paraphrase Thucydides, the strong will continue to do what they can and the weak will continue to suffer what they must.

It is true that leaders and observers around the world often speak of strengthening or defending the “rules-based international order.” But that order was always more aspirational than real. Countries that possess military or economic might reserve the right not only to make and enforce the rules, but also to break them.