When will the world have vaccinated 80% of all adults, the level presumed by scientists to produce herd immunity against COVID-19? Most people’s answer is 2023 or 2024, which suggests deep pessimism about the progress of vaccinations outside the rich world. That is also why pledges at the recent G7 summit to donate 1 billion doses to poor countries during this year and in 2022 look to some like generous game changers.
But despair is the wrong sentiment and self-congratulation by the G7 is the wrong reaction. If the current daily rate of vaccinations can be maintained, the world can reach its vaccination goal by January 2022.
The first step toward effective action is to convince oneself that a problem is solvable. To that end, the Global Commission for Post-Pandemic Policy, an independent, nonpartisan group of 34 high-level doers and thinkers from around the globe, has done the math to come up with a global vaccine countdown. Surprisingly, we found that the challenge is much more manageable than we imagined and on a timetable much faster than that assumed by the G7 governments.