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There’s more at stake in Tokyo’s prospective emergency measures to contain the coronavirus than the fate of the metropolis’s great bars and restaurants. Bullish scenarios for a muscular global economic rebound may have to be reassessed.

The International Monetary Fund has penciled in world growth of 5.2%, and a 6.9% boost for Asia. Morgan Stanley predicted a global gain of 6.4%. But Japan may be heading for a renewed contraction after Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga declared a state of emergency in the capital and surrounding districts. The steps may slice 0.7% from gross domestic product each month they are in force, according to Bloomberg Economics.

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