As of today, almost half the world’s population, nearly 4 billion people, are under government-mandated lockdowns in an effort to stop the spread of COVID-19.
How long should the lockdowns last? The obvious answer, to paraphrase British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, is until we’ve “beaten” COVID-19. But when exactly will that be? Until not a single person on Earth has it? That may never happen. Until we have a vaccine, or an effective treatment? That could easily be a year away, perhaps much longer. Do we want to keep people locked down, our societies shuttered — restaurants, parks, schools and offices closed — for that long?
It pains us to say it, but U.S. President Donald Trump is right: “We cannot let the cure be worse than the disease.” Lockdowns have health benefits: fewer will die of COVID-19, as well as other transmissible diseases. But they have real social and economic costs: social isolation, unemployment and widespread bankruptcies, to name three. These ills are not yet fully apparent, but they soon will be.