2018 is poised to be a good year for Japan. As rising confidence at home gets compounded by accelerating global growth, a 3 percent GDP growth would not be a surprise according to my econometric models. Real surprises are true outliers, scenarios not captured by the quantitative forecasts of the experts, or the consensus opinion of the crowd. That's what makes surprises so powerful.
For Japan in 2018, here are the outlier scenarios that I personally worry about. Improbable as they may appear, any movement toward their far-out direction will force an about-face in consensus opinion. Enjoy, and best wishes for a successful and happy 2018.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe goes to Pyongyang and secures a $1 trillion Japan-led infrastructure upgrade for North Korea.