The defeat of the Islamic State in the Middle East and the end of its so-called caliphate may prove a turning point in Middle East politics — but not the one that many anticipated. The chief beneficiaries of these developments are Russian President Vladimir Putin and his ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad. More worrisome still, this turn of events could foreshadow a new order not only in the Middle East but elsewhere in the world as well.
The horrors perpetrated by IS have allowed many people to forget that the vacuum that the radical group filled was created in part by the civil war in Syria. IS proved to be the most formidable opponent of the Damascus regime, and Assad and his allies, Putin in particular, were quick to seize on the threat posed by IS to rally other forces behind the proverbial lesser of two evils. Indecisiveness on the part of the United States over yet another external intervention as its forces struggled in Afghanistan and Iraq gave Russia an opening to assert itself fully in the Syrian maelstrom.
Almost as soon as the civil war began, Russia began pushing for a diplomatic solution to the conflict, which was premised on the survival of the Assad regime. Peace talks began in Geneva in 2014, but they only sputtered along. More important than discussions in Switzerland was the situation on the ground in Syria: Since the talks began, the Assad government has reclaimed virtually all the territory it had lost and is now again the pre-eminent power in the country.