Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's move to call a snap general election next month has triggered a surprise realignment in the opposition camp that could pose a potent threat to the survival of his administration. Democratic Party leader Seiji Maehara's decision to effectively disband the largest opposition force to be absorbed by the nascent party just launched by popular Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike may finally result in the creation of a serious contender to the ruling coalition — the lack of which has enabled Abe to maintain his iron grip on power for the past five years. But just as Abe was held to account for his decision to call the snap poll now, the opposition forces need to explain to voters what they together aim to achieve beyond winning the upcoming election.
Abe's decision to dissolve the Lower House on Thursday — with 15 months to go in its members' four-year term — was clearly intended to catch the opposition off guard and secure the best possible performance for his Liberal Democratic Party. Popular support for his administration has been picking up again after sinking just a few months ago to its worst levels due to a series of scandals. The opposition leader Democratic Party was in a pathetic condition; the newly chosen Maehara was unable to reverse the party's sinking fortunes or stop the departures of its lawmakers to join the rising force led by Koike. Koike's bid to launch a new national party was deemed a threat to the ruling coalition after her local Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First) party upstaged the LDP in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly race in July. But while Koike managed to launch her Kibo no To (Party of Hope) just ahead of Abe's announcement of the snap election, there seemed to be obvious limits to how far the fledgling party can go in the Lower House race to be held on Oct. 22.
Maehara's decision appeared to make political sense. The defections of DP members, including veteran lawmakers who had held Cabinet and key party positions while the old Democratic Party of Japan was in power, seemed unstoppable to the point where its survival as a major political force was thrown in doubt. A further decline of the No. 1 opposition force would leave the opposition camp even more splintered, a problem that in turn has made Abe and his LDP-led coalition ever stronger over the years.