I do not know what a Trump presidency will bring for the South China Sea imbroglio. But by making and clearly stating assumptions, using logic based on the relevant available information and sketching scenarios I can shed some light on the likely possibilities.

According to The New York Times, Donald Trump has “no elective office experience, no coherent political agenda and no bulging binders of policy proposals.” However, we do know that Trump’s management style is that of a delegator of responsibility to loyal associates. This means that his appointees will be greatly empowered to pursue their initiatives independently — as long as they don’t cause problems for the boss. If they do, then Trump’s presidency may become more like a long drawn out season of “The Apprentice” with firings being the consequences for failure. In that scenario. Trump’s foreign policy in general is likely to be chaotic, confused and confusing. Let’s hope this is not the case.

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