Haruhiko Kuroda's monetary "bazooka" just got outgunned by the Swiss. Since April 2013, Japan's central banker has been pumping trillions of dollars into the economy in an attempt to generate 2 percent inflation. But in a mature, aging economy like Japan's, the effort is 95 percent about confidence. In order to "drastically convert the deflationary mindset," as Kuroda puts it, the Bank of Japan must transform sentiment among households and businesses. Kuroda's massive bond purchases mean little if the Japanese don't trust that better days lay ahead.
The Swiss National Bank's move to abandon the franc's cap against the euro may have blown a hole in Kuroda's strategy. By reneging on a promise made time and time again that he wouldn't ditch the policy, SNB President Thomas Jordan "has undermined the credibility of central banks," says Simon Grose-Hodge of LGT Group in Singapore. Now, at central banks around the globe, he adds, "the unthinkable is entirely possible. You can't rule anything out."
Even if the BOJ issues another blast of quantitative-easing after its two-day policy meeting on Jan. 20-21, the question is how effective the move would be. Kuroda's Oct. 31 shock-and-awe stimulus announcement worked for a time by bolstering perceptions that steady inflation was within reach. But this time, with even Economy Minister Akira Amari admitting "it will probably be difficult" for the BOJ to succeed, markets are likely to be more skeptical of the bank's staying power.