The crisis in Ukraine appears to be receding. After the coup against President Viktor Yanukovych and his flight to Russia, mysterious paramilitary forces — which all, save Russian President Vladimir Putin, believe are Russian special operations soldiers — have seized control of Crimea, and the region appears set to vote on its future in a referendum later this month.

Russian war games on the border with Ukraine have ended, and Putin says he has no intention of moving his troops into the eastern parts of the country. The threat to Russian nationals and national interests has apparently diminished.

The West is still mustering its response to this surreptitious aggression by Moscow. U.S. President Barack Obama has said that Russian moves will incur a cost, but that price is not yet clear. A military response is not in the works, but diplomatic and economic moves are under way.