Could 2012 turn conventional wisdom on its head? Here’s the conventional wisdom: U.S. President Barack Obama’s re-election is vulnerable to the weak economy and high joblessness. Here’s what might happen: The economy gradually improves, and although unemployment stays high (exceeding 8 percent), what counts politically is the palpable sense that things are moving in the right direction. This allows Obama to argue, as he already does, that his policies are slowly repairing the economic calamity he inherited from Republicans.

To which they respond: Obama’s anti-business rhetoric and policies have impeded recovery; the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) and new regulations create uncertainties that deter hiring; and Obama hasn’t dealt with the explosion of federal debt.

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