While 2011 was "the great unraveling," 2012 holds out the prospect of equally consequential changes for Asia, but the inflection points are visible well ahead of time. The most notable feature of the calendar will be elections that are scheduled to be held throughout the region this year, each of which could bring about substantial change in its own right, but which in combination could trigger lurches in regional politics and relations.
The first ballots will take place in Taiwan, where both presidential and parliamentary elections will be held together for the first time on Jan. 14. President Ma Ying-jeou, who took office four years ago, is battling Democratic Progressive Party nominee Tsai Ing-wen, and at this point the race is too close to call.
The most notable feature of the Ma presidency has been the calming of cross-strait relations and there is a fear that a Tsai victory will roil the relationship as did the last DPP president, Mr. Chen Shui-bian, who was forthright in his support for Taiwan independence. Ms. Tsai has tried to dampen concern but the Beijing government worries that lightning will strike twice.