Predictably, the fourth round of talks over North Korea's nuclear-weapons programs broke off last weekend in stalemate. Progress was evident during the marathon negotiations, however, so the break is only a recess: Representatives from the six parties to the talks -- China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States -- are taking three weeks to consult with their governments and each other, and will reconvene later this month. That session will prove whether North Korea is ready to make a deal; if the other five parties maintain the solidarity they have shown thus far, Pyongyang will have no real alternative.
The previous three rounds of the six-party talks were fruitless. Despite the severity of the core problem -- allegations that North Korea has a clandestine nuclear-weapons program -- and the prospect of a fundamental reorganization of relations among the states of Northeast Asia if it was solved, the parties were unable to even agree on statements at the conclusion of each round. China, the host and chair, merely issued its own assessment of the discussions. Hopes for a peaceful resolution dimmed when North Korea refused to resume negotiations after the third round, subsequently declared itself to be a nuclear-weapons state and upped its demands to include the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula.
But as Pyongyang escalated its belligerence, shifts were occurring in the policies of other key parties to the talks. South Korea appeared more resistant to North Korea's appeals and took a harder line, demanding that Pyongyang be prepared to negotiate seriously about its nuclear weapons before Seoul would extend more aid. It also unveiled an offer that would provide substantial energy assistance to the North and made plain the benefits of a deal. The U.S. toned down its rhetoric, giving North Korean leader Kim Jong Il the respect he craves, and repeating at every opportunity that Washington harbors no hostile intent toward the North and would respect its sovereignty. The U.S. also signaled increasing flexibility in its position: It appeared less resistant to other parties providing aid to the North at earlier stages of a deal.