Unrest continues to grow in southern Thailand. Long-standing grievances are being compounded by government bungling, insensitivity and negligence. Now, even Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra concedes that violence is likely to increase. A failure to properly respond to Muslim complaints will guarantee that the anger becomes an insurgency, with potentially disastrous consequences for Thailand and all of Southeast Asia.
The citizens of southern Thailand have many reasons to be angry. They are not like the rest of the country. As descendants of the Muslim kingdom of Pattani, which was annexed by Thailand in 1902, they are followers of Islam in a predominantly Buddhist nation. They have strong ties to Malaysia, speak a Malay dialect and identify themselves as Pattanis rather than Thais. In addition, the region is much less developed than the rest of the country; it generates a mere 1.5 percent of Thailand's gross national product.
The government's attempt to impose a Thai identity on the south has increased resentment and fueled an independence movement that thus far has failed to gain widespread acceptance. But that could be changing: Estimates are that separatists may have as many as 30,000 supporters throughout Thailand. Some -- it is not clear how many -- have trained in guerrilla camps in Afghanistan, Pakistan or elsewhere in Southeast Asia.