For the past few years, I have been going to Hawaii every summer to stand atop Diamond Head and speculate on the historic destinies of the United States and China, the two superpowers facing each other across the Pacific, and Japan, which is sandwiched between them.

Since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, dramatic changes have marked the relationship between the U.S. and China. These changes have become even clearer this year with the war in Iraq and the tensions surrounding North Korea.

The war in Iraq has come to an end, although sporadic guerrilla fighting continues. Thus the development of nuclear weapons by North Korea has become the most serious diplomatic and military issue for the latter half of this year, involving the U.S., China, North Korea, South Korea, Japan and even Russia.