WASHINGTON -- We are just a few weeks from election day 2002. Usually, in a midterm election, especially one just after the redistricting of Congress, it becomes apparent how the races are shaping up. Trends set in as candidates begin to pull away in competitive races. But not this year; just the reverse is happening. As Nov. 5 approaches, the number of competitive Senate races seems to be increasing, and election outcomes for some members of the House of Representatives are no less decisive. The 2002 trend lines look like a roller coaster.
Nothing seems normal. That is good for President George W. Bush and his Republican colleagues. If it were normal, it would be disastrous for him and the Republicans. A president's party traditionally loses seats in his first by-election, and with so many important legislative questions hanging in that narrow balance in Congress, the president needs all the support he can get on Capitol Hill.
Let us first take a look at the Senate, where there are currently 50 Democratic senators, 49 Republicans and one independent. There are 34 seats up for election this year, 14 of them held by Democrats and 20 by Republicans. Five Republican seats have been left open by the retirement of incumbent members, a condition that usually creates a note of uncertainty. In New Hampshire, incumbent Bob Smith lost his primary to Rep. John Sununu, but that probably has improved the Republican Party's chances of maintaining that seat.