HONOLULU -- "Our firm stance toward North Korea is working!" So goes the conventional wisdom in Washington these days, as supporters of President George W. Bush's "hardline" policy claim credit for Pyongyang's recent decision to resume its dialogue with Seoul.

"Not so fast," say supporters of South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's Sunshine Policy. It was Seoul's persistent, evenhanded (and openhearted) approach toward the North that persuaded Pyongyang to come around, despite (rather than because of) Bush's confrontational policies.

My guess -- and, when it comes to divining North Korean motives, the best anyone can really do is guess -- is that they are both wrong.