LAUSANNE, Switzerland -- In early 1997 I was hosting a reception at a Geneva hotel following a workshop on trade issues when a Japanese official took me aside. Looking at me conspiratorially, he whispered, "Professor Lehmann, I have an important question to ask you: How long do you think it will be before China catches up with Japan?" I looked at him gravely and replied, "Oh, I am not sure, Harada-san (not his real name), maybe about three weeks."
He was clearly stunned. Not the answer he expected! In fact, I am pretty sure that what he wanted to hear was that Japan was so advanced and China so backward that any catching up was unlikely to take place in his or his children's lifetime. I went on, however, to tell him I did not know what his question meant. In terms of purchasing power, China was possibly already bigger than Japan. In gross domestic product per capita, it would probably be a question of several decades at least. In technology, Japan's advance is pretty phenomenal, though at the time I had not anticipated the extent to which Taiwan would be transferring technology to the mainland.
But I went on to explain to Harada-san the reason for my answer. It had to do with the human factor, specifically the youth human factor. Earlier that day I had been teaching in my institute's MBA program. The MBA program at the International Institute for Management Development (IMD) is small (80 students), highly exclusive and highly international (about 35 nationalities). The Chinese participants are undoubtedly among the best, brightest and boldest. They speak English fluently, they are confident and articulate, they network easily. While the institute applies no quota system, we try to get a reasonable balance of people from different continents and countries. The "difficulty" we have every year is in having to select from so many highly qualified Chinese candidates.