Political chaos in August ended when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, the Liberal Party, agreed to form an alliance with New Komeito, despite widespread fears that the tripartite negotiations would fail because of policy differences. By successfully playing a political numbers game, the administration of Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi tightened its grip on power. The LP, which was on the verge of breakup over whether it should stay in the alliance, managed to avoid that fate. This was the second time that a Komeito group, supported by the lay Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, would join a ruling coalition. All public opinion polls show, however, widespread opposition to the three-way alliance.
With the dust settling over the coalition issue, the political world is turning its attention to leadership battles in the ruling and opposition forces. LP leader Ichiro Ozawa, who managed to keep his party in the ruling camp after threatening to bolt over policy differences, has no problem retaining his post. There will be no change in the leadership of New Komeito, either, amid widespread praise among its supporters for its participation in the ruling coalition. But the LDP and the Democratic Party of Japan, the top opposition force, will hold elections to choose their leaders.
Obuchi is widely expected to win the Sept. 27 LDP presidential election and retain his job as prime minister. His rivals -- former LDP Secretary General Koichi Kato and former LDP policy chief Taku Yamasaki -- have little chance of winning. The Obuchi Cabinet enjoys high public-approval ratings of almost 50 percent, among the highest on record in Japan. Obuchi is supported by all LDP factions except the Kato and Yamasaki groups, and is also credited with riding out the political storm over the coalition issue.