From warning tourists to halting seafood imports, China has followed a well-worn playbook in punishing Japan for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks linking a Taiwan conflict to her country’s security. But one weapon remains conspicuously holstered: rare earths.

It’s a lever that China has used against Japan before. Back in 2010, a territorial dispute prompted an effective embargo from Beijing that sent Tokyo scrambling for alternatives to the materials, which are critical for making electric vehicles, smartphones and missiles.

This time, however, former U.S. officials and China analysts say Beijing is likely to hold back. Whereas 15 years ago Japan was singled out, recent events have underscored the world’s reliance on China and showed Beijing’s willingness to leverage its mining and processing dominance on countries around the globe.