Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, Komeito, were projected to lose their majority in the Upper House, media reports said Monday, a defeat in an election a day earlier that could trigger Ishiba’s resignation or political deadlock in parliament.
Populist opposition parties, especially the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito, were projected to boost their seats.
The election — which came just nine months after Ishiba took office — was seen as a rebuke of the prime minister and the LDP, which has now been dealt drubbings in two national elections under his leadership following October’s loss of its majority in a Lower House poll.
Ishiba is likely to continue on for now, given that tariffs negotiations with the United States need to be prioritized over internal power politics. But once the dust settles, pressure for the prime minister to resign may intensify.
Early Monday, NHK projected the LDP and Komeito combined would end up getting 47 seats, leaving it short of the 50 it needs to retain a majority in the chamber.
But, in a hint that he would stay in his post, Ishiba told NHK late Sunday that his party still "has responsibilities to the nation that we must fulfill."
Asked during a different TV program if that meant he intended to stay on as prime minister and party leader, he said "that's right."
LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama called the election a “tough fight,” adding that he will discuss with Ishiba how to take responsibility for the outcome. But, in a hint that he, too, could also remain in his post, Moriyama also said that the ruling party “must fulfill our responsibilities.”
According to an NHK projections on Monday morning, the LDP was expected to win 39 seats, while Komeito secured eight.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), meanwhile, was projected to secure 21 seats.
The DPP, which had four lawmakers facing reelection, was expected to win 17 seats.
DPP Secretary-General Kazuya Shimba told a TV program that his party won’t be joining the ruling coalition, while adding that the LDP was likely to be consumed by internal politics, rather than expanding the coalition, for the immediate future.
The small right-wing party Sanseito, which had just one lawmaker facing reelection, stunned observers with a strong showing that was expected to bring it 14 seats in the Upper House. The party, which currently has three seats in the lower chamber, has voiced hopes of joining any coalition government after the next Lower House election.
In addition to the structural design of Upper House elections, which is more favorable to smaller or emerging parties, observers say the rise of Sanseito and the DPP is a result of a growing anti-LDP sentiment among the voters.
“Parties like Sanseito and the DPP have functioned as vessels for that anti-LDP sentiment,” said Hanako Ohmura, a professor at Kyoto University specializing in public opinion and voting behavior.
“That vague anti-LDP sentiment is, I think, what's fueling the recent surge of support for Sanseito and the DPP.”
Meanwhile, Nippon Ishin no Kai was projected to win seven seats, while the Japanese Communist Party and Reiwa Shinsengumi were expected to win three seats each.
Media polls had indicated the ruling coalition could lose its long-held majority in the upper chamber, with the projections becoming increasingly dire as the campaign period wound down.
Since the October Lower House election, which saw the ruling bloc fall short of a majority, the LDP had been unable to rehabilitate its standing in the eyes of many voters. Sunday’s vote offered a snapshot of the current views of Ishiba, who also serves as LDP president and whose political standing has long been tarnished by low approval ratings.
“The Ishiba administration has received a harsh verdict,” said Yu Uchiyama, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo.
“It seems the public believed that the government and ruling parties failed to respond effectively to various issues, including rising prices,” he said “The opposition’s call for a consumption tax cut appears to have appealed to voters more than the ruling party’s proposed cash handouts.”
With 75 of its seats not contested in the Upper House, 50 had been the magic number for the coalition to retain a majority in the chamber. Komeito’s declining fortunes, apparent in the recent Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election, had also contributed to a growing sense of anxiety.
The last time an LDP government lost a majority in the Upper House was in 2007, during the first stint of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who resigned soon after that election.
“Moves to oust Ishiba may emerge,” said Uchiyama. “However, under these difficult circumstances, it will be hard for anyone — regardless of who becomes prime minister — to turn the situation around.”
Meanwhile, the opposition was expected to make strong gains nationwide, most notably in the 32 single-seat constituencies key to the election’s outcome.
The CDP was likely to maintain its position as the largest opposition force in both chambers of parliament, further narrowing its gap with the LDP. The opposition camp, however, remains largely fragmented.
Two issues had shaped the 17-day campaign period — rising prices and policies related to the foreign community.
While all opposition parties have called for tax cuts to ease the sting of inflation, the ruling coalition pledged cash handouts for everyone, including foreign residents, and targeted support for child-rearing and low-income households.
Regardless of the final tally of seats, economic issues will remain at the top of the agenda in the coming weeks and months.
Any successful push from the opposition to slash the consumption tax is very likely to put Japan under even more fiscal strain, analysts have warned.
In addition, the United States is poised to raise its “reciprocal” tariff rate on Japan from the current 10% to 25% on Aug. 1, unless a deal is reached with the administration of President Donald Trump.
On multiple occasions in recent weeks, the U.S. president has openly complained about the lack of progress in negotiations with Japan, which has achieved no tangible outcome despite months of talks.
A period of political instability is expected whether Ishiba chooses to step down or form a new government with the cooperation of an opposition party. Both scenarios would make any last-minute deal to avert the 25% tariff rate less likely.
Jiji Press estimated that Sunday’s voter turnout would be 57.91%, up from 52.05% in the previous Upper House election in 2022.
On the other hand, more than 25% of eligible voters cast their ballots ahead of Sunday’s election, totaling some 26 million and setting a record high for national elections, according to the internal affairs ministry.
As for how things will unfold going forward, some believe this election’s outcome could represent a turning point in Japan’s political landscape.
“An LDP presidential race is inevitable. While it depends on when the next Lower House election will be held, the key question will be how much support Sanseito can retain in that next general election,” said Kyoto University’s Ohmura.
“In other words, the question will be: Is the path of populism viable or not? That next general election — an election to choose the next administration — will reveal the answer.”
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