South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is fighting for political survival after declaring martial law on Tuesday night only to rescind it hours later, a surprise move that drew intense criticism and one that will have broad ramifications for regional security, including Seoul’s improved ties with Tokyo.
Opposition lawmakers on Wednesday submitted a motion for Yoon’s impeachment, following the shock move that he said was directed at “antistate forces” in the National Assembly, the country’s parliament, which he claimed have “paralyzed” his administration and the workings of the government.
The declaration of martial law, which would have banned political activity and censored the media, was quickly rejected by the National Assembly early Wednesday, with all 190 of the body’s 300 lawmakers present at the time — including members of Yoon’s People Power Party — voting against it.
Yoon’s unexpected move has triggered the country’s biggest political crisis in decades, with a coalition of six opposition parties introducing the impeachment motion signed by 190 opposition lawmakers and one independent.
The opposition parties plan to discuss the motion during a parliamentary plenary session on Thursday and put it up for a vote on Friday or Saturday, the Yonhap news agency reported.
The South Korean parliament can impeach the president if more than two-thirds of lawmakers vote in favor. Yoon’s party controls 108 seats in the 300-member parliament.
If that passes, a trial would then be held by the country’s Constitutional Court, which can confirm the move as long as six of the nine justices vote for it. If Yoon is removed, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo would serve as a caretaker leader until an election is called.
In an apparent bid to quell the growing anger, local media reports said that a coterie of senior aides to the president, including his chief of staff, national security adviser and chief of staff for policy, as well as seven other senior aides, had offered to resign en masse.
But this came as street protests, including those outside the National Assembly, appeared to be gaining steam, with other demonstrations planned.
Meanwhile, even Yoon’s own party appeared to support moves against him.
Han Dong-hoon, the leader of the People Power Party, called for defense chief Kim Yong-hyun to be fired and the entire Cabinet to resign, media reports said, with Han also suggesting that Yoon be kicked out of the party, though other ruling party lawmakers had differing views.
Later Wednesday, Yoon's defense minister offered to resign to take responsibility for the turmoil.
South Korea’s main opposition Democratic Party (DP) has called on Yoon to step down or be impeached over the martial law declaration — the country’s first since 1980. The party said it would file insurrection charges against Yoon and other top security officials.
“Even if martial law is lifted, he cannot avoid charges of treason. It has been clearly revealed to the entire nation that President Yoon can no longer run the country normally. He must step down,” senior DP lawmaker Park Chan-dae said in a statement.
Yoon, a political neophyte before his election to a five-year term in 2022, has in recent months grappled with a dismal approval rating of around 20%. In April parliamentary elections, his party suffered a drubbing, losing control of the National Assembly to an opposition coalition that won nearly two-thirds of the seats.
While there have been 17 martial law declarations since the country was founded in 1948, the last one came in 1980, following the student-led pro-democracy Gwangju Uprising and subsequent deadly military crackdown led by de facto strongman Chun Doo-hwan.
Yoon’s martial law announcement, despite his reversal, prompted concern in Japan and from Seoul and Tokyo's mutual ally, the United States.
In Tokyo, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that Japan is monitoring the situation in South Korea with "special and serious concern," adding that his administration is "taking all possible measures" to ensure the safety of Japanese citizens in the country.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, meanwhile, said Washington welcomes the order’s removal and supports the people of South Korea and the two countries’ alliance “based on shared principles of democracy and the rule of law.”
“We continue to expect political disagreements to be resolved peacefully,” Blinken said in a statement.
The United States has about 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, a force largely focused on deterring nuclear-armed North Korea.
U.S.-Japan-South Korea ties, especially in the security sphere, have improved in recent years, and there are fears that the martial law order and resulting upheaval could impact both the trilateral relationship and bilateral one between Seoul and Tokyo.
Those bilateral ties have advanced at a rapid clip since March last year, when then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Yoon met to resolve a long-festering row over issues related to Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula that had pushed the relationship to its lowest level in decades.
Experts said the seemingly out-of-the-blue move by Yoon was the beginning of the end for the South Korean leader.
“Either Yoon resigns or will be impeached. There is no coming back from this,” said Jenny Town, director of Stimson Center think tank’s Korea Program.
In a scenario where Yoon resigns, the law requires that an election be held within 60 days of the post becoming vacant, meaning that the next president could take office as early as February, said Kan Kimura, a professor at Kobe University’s Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies.
An impeachment would then put into motion the Constitutional Court’s review, which could push any election back to April at the earliest, Kimura said.
With Yoon and his party facing harsh criticism, the DP is expected to seize the opportunity in the event of a presidential election. Any win by the party would present what would amount to a complete shift in South Korea’s diplomatic approach to restoring ties with Japan.
The DP has been known for its virulent opposition to Yoon’s moves toward rapprochement with Japan — including a deal to resolve the issue of what Seoul says was wartime forced labor. DP leader Lee Jae-myung even called the South Korean president’s March 2023 summit with Kishida the "most humiliating moment" in the country's diplomatic history.
In particular, Kimura said that Seoul’s position on the issue of wartime labor — “the most contentious matter in Japan-Korea relations” — would be turned upside down.
“I think it is inevitable that there will be a complete change in the South Korean side's attitude,” he said.
Progress in trilateral relations with Tokyo and Washington — already a concern ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration — could also be in jeopardy amid the chaos.
“The sustainability of the progress made under the Yoon administration in the realm of foreign policy is almost zero,” Stephen Nagy, a visiting fellow for the Japan Institute for International Affairs, said, adding that achievements such as the trilateral Camp David agreement, South Korea’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and its shifting stance on China and Taiwan “will all be thrown out by a progressive government,” complicating trilateral cooperation.
This would also potentially expose Seoul to threats from Trump to pay more for security protection — an issue he has repeatedly returned to with U.S. allies — and could even accelerate discussions on South Korea acquiring its own nuclear weapons.
As for Pyongyang looking to take advantage of the chaos, the Stimson Center’s Town said that North Korea is unlikely to interfere in any major way at the moment, given how events are unfolding.
“If the impeachment of (former South Korean President) Park Geun-hye was any indication, North Korea will likely get in a few rhetorical jabs at Yoon, but refrain from steps that would potentially disrupt the course of events.”
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