Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba heads into the Oct. 27 general election having to look over his shoulder at a key member of his own Liberal Democratic Party who is stepping up efforts to ensure that, no matter the results, his time as leader is short.

Since the race kicked off on Oct. 15, former economic security minister Sanae Takaichi has crisscrossed the country to give stump speeches on behalf of many candidates. While Ishiba and the party’s election chief, Shinjiro Koizumi, avoided slush fund scandal-tainted LDP members, Takaichi did not. She received invitations to speak from over 120 candidates, including Koichi Hagiuda and others forced to run without party endorsement.

Her stops included an Oct. 20 appearance in front of Nara’s Saidaiji Station, where former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was killed while giving a stump speech on behalf of a candidate during the July 2022 Upper House campaign.

Takaichi spoke to the crowd about the importance of creating a strong nation.

“National power is diplomatic power, defense power, important economic power, technological power, information power, and human resources power. We will strengthen the power of each and every one of you,” she said.

Takaichi, who lost a runoff vote to Ishiba in the September LDP presidential election, has emerged as the most prominent face of what appears to be an internal party revolt against the party president.

The hawkish, conservative Takaichi was particularly close to Abe, who was in office between 2012 and 2020. Having turned down an offer to join Ishiba’s LDP leadership lineup, she is working to build more support in the party and among the public.

Takaichi has carefully avoided direct criticism of Ishiba’s administration. But after reports emerged that some people said they would not vote for any LDP candidate who hadn’t backed her in last month’s LDP presidential election, she was forced to respond on social media.

“There have been several reports of people saying they will not vote for LDP-endorsed candidates who supported someone other than myself in the LDP presidential election. The candidates and myself are all aware of the criticisms of the LDP. But if we lose (the upcoming election), it will be hard to steer the ship of state,” she posted on her X social media account.

Takaichi has made no secret of her ambition to become Japan’s first female prime minister. In the 2021 presidential election, she ran unabashedly as the heir to Abe’s economic and diplomatic legacy. Abe supported her even though she wasn't a member of his faction.

However, she failed to advance to the deciding round of voting, which was won by former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Ishiba's predecessor.

Afterward, Takaichi continued to position herself as the party’s intellectual successor to Abe and raised her profile. Between Aug. 19 and Sept. 24, just before the Sept. 27 LDP presidential election, her YouTube channel had over 3 million views. She currently has about 3.9 million subscribers.

In contrast, Ishiba’s channel only had about 115,000 views during the same period; today, he has around 25,000 subscribers.

Takaichi made it to the deciding round of this year's presidential election by winning more votes than any of the other nine candidates in the initial round, especially from nonparliamentary LDP members in local chapters. Ishiba came in second.

In the runoff, Takaichi was backed by former LDP Vice President Taro Aso, who was also close to Abe and dislikes Ishiba. She also drew support from parliamentarians who had been members of Abe’s faction.

But Kishida and other LDP parliamentary opponents of Takaichi backed Ishiba in the final round, where nonparliamentary votes were much less important. Ishiba emerged victorious, winning 215 votes to Takaichi's 194.

Aso met with Takaichi afterward and advised her to continue building support within the party, predicting that Ishiba’s administration would not last long.

Yet, despite Aso’s encouragement and having received lots of votes from conservative LDP members in the presidential election, it’s unclear whether that will lead to a groundswell of solid long-term support.

“Abe was fond of Takaichi when he was alive and conservative lawmakers backed her at his behest. But now that Abe is gone, there might be no more than 10 LDP members at the moment who would truly follow Takaichi,” political journalist Tetsuo Suzuki said.

This is because while she garnered a lot of votes in the presidential election, many came from those who wanted to keep Ishiba from winning, rather than from loyal supporters.

“It's fair to say most of the votes she won were not for her but rather the result of a flow of votes to the anti-Ishiba candidate (whoever it might have been) in the deciding round,” he said.

Furthermore, Takaichi could face competition from Takayuki Kobayashi to become the leader of the party’s conservative wing, Suzuki said.

Many hawkish conservatives see Kobayashi, who ran for the first time and finished in fifth place overall in the initial round of voting, as a future leader. He had a lot of support from younger former members of the Abe faction.

What happens to Takaichi’s ambitions depends on the results of the Oct. 27 election.

A victory by the LDP-Komeito coalition with fewer-than-expected party losses that keeps them in power could temporarily reduce the pressure on Ishiba from Takaichi and her allies.

On the other hand, a narrow victory could further intensify criticism of Ishiba’s leadership.

If the ruling coalition fails to win a majority, however, Ishiba’s fate will likely be sealed. Such a turn of events would give Takaichi and her allies an opportunity to do what her mentor Abe did in 2012: take over the LDP when it’s an opposition party and then return it to power in the next general election.